“Finish the job this time.” Sources close to Tehran and Islamabad say that is what Iran’s Supreme Leader told his commanders it is their obligation to do if the US strikes — and that “geographical constraints do not exist.” Larry Johnson’s sources say Trump’s option after Tuesday’s midterms is seizing Kharg Island, a gamble Pepe Escobar calls “absolutely suicidal.” Escobar, from Shanghai after midnight, and Zulfiqar Ali.
Timeline:
00:03:01 Washington’s option: Kharg Island, according to sources cited by Larry Johnson
00:17:29 “No traction”: Tehran’s answer to the Vance letter, per our host’s sources
00:20:51 The orders: “All have their orders, down to the level of the commander who’s going to push the button.”
00:21:24 Dimona: who decides, and on what trigger — per our host’s sources
00:33:03 Riyadh fears it’s next: the Saudi defence minister agreed in Tehran, per Mohsen Rezaei
00:40:52 Hormuz: “not gonna be a petrodollar oil chokepoint” — why Escobar says oil is splitting into blocs
Vance signed the letter. Iran’s intelligence believes Trump wrote it, a source close to Iran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei says — and Pepe Escobar challenged that on air.
The same source says that after an hour with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Pakistan’s army chief has taken over the talks, and Iran’s answer is its money back and the blockade gone before any nuclear talks. Qatar remains the public mediator.
Pepe Escobar, from Shanghai, on the $6 billion, the order that blocks a deal, and the strike plans after Tuesday’s midterms. Zulfiqar Ali brings his source.
Timeline:
00:19:14 Inside the room with Iran’s leader — per our host’s source.
00:20:12 Pakistan takes the talks.
00:25:05 Vance signed. Trump wrote? Iran’s assessment — and the on-air challenge.
00:27:43 $6 billion back, blockade gone, nuclear talks last.
Putin just warned that the Baltic Sea could become the next Strait of Hormuz, and Alex breaks down what that means for Europe as Elbridge Colby and the Pentagon quietly tell Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to stop poking Russia. We also cover Ursula von der Leyen and Mark Carney pushing Canada toward EU associate membership, Zelensky striking Russian refineries despite Trump's pressure, the CENTCOM briefing on Iran, Kaja Kallas under fire and the massive $6 billion Binance crypto hack. Is Europe about to turn the Baltic into its own Hormuz crisis?
Timeline:
00:00:00 Ursula and Carney push Canada EU associate membership
00:04:17 Merz backs the EU Canada Alliance for the Future
00:08:41 Putin backs Africa seat on UN Security Council
00:10:05 Putin warns Baltic Sea could become another Hormuz
00:12:00 Why Putin took the call from Stubb and Store
00:13:33 Putin on 2030: Russia ready, but no victors
00:15:10 Colby tells Baltic states to stop poking Russia
00:19:14 WSJ says Ukraine paused refinery strikes, then Samara hit
00:23:10 CENTCOM briefs Trump on Iran blockade and Hormuz
00:27:16 Senator Murphy calls the Iran strike plan insane
00:29:54 Nord Stream stays shut as EU oil majors post record profits
00:33:00 The $6.3 billion Binance hack and North Korea claims
00:36:07 Clown World: Berliner Zeitung asks what Kallas does
00:39:16 Merz in Japan seeking funds for Ukraine
00:41:03 Rest in peace Patrick Stewart
Larry Wilkerson and Larry Johnson discuss a Financial Times report that Iran is using limpet mines, and Nima Alkhorshid’s account that at least two supertankers are on fire in the Strait of Hormuz after US Central Command said the mines were gone. Wilkerson says the mines add to Iran’s options rather than marking a new kind of escalation, and Johnson says US ships can no longer enter the strait without coming under attack.
Anthony Aguilar tells Nima Alkhorshid that the United States bombed Bandar-e Jask, a port city on Iran's southern coast by the Strait of Hormuz, after strikes he places last week at Sirik and Konarak. He says Iranian air defenses forced a fighter out of the strait, and that these hits are preparation for a wider US and Israeli campaign, with the USS Theodore Roosevelt about a day and a half away.
He links the timing to the US midterms and Israel's unresolved election, where he says Benjamin Netanyahu is still caretaker and no bloc reached 61 seats. He expects Iran to wait rather than strike first, and to answer later against Tel Aviv, Dimona, and bases in Jordan.
Anthony Aguilar tells Sabby Sabs that the Strait of Hormuz became the pivotal issue after the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. He says Israel will strike civilian targets in the next escalation because its bombs cannot reach buried sites, and that a US MOAB would be used against cities.
Trump offered Iran $6 billion to reopen Hormuz, and, Pravin Sawhney says, conceded he has no control over Netanyahu. Iran's answer, carried back by Pakistan's Field Marshal Asim Munir: the next war "will not be the 40-day war" — if attacked, Iran would hit desalination plants, power grids, ports, refineries, US AI infrastructure in the Gulf and the seven subsea cables under Hormuz. Host Zulfiqar Ali brings what people in the room with Munir told him: Pakistan has decided to stand with Iran.
Timeline:
00:07:23 The $6 billion offer: Trump's terms for Iran, as the guest describes them.
00:08:15 "He has no control over Netanyahu."
00:11:38 The message: "this time, the war will be different."
00:22:57 Pakistan's decision — per people in the room with Asim Munir.
00:32:57 Netanyahu and the 27 October clock.
Nima Alkhorshid says the Wall Street Journal and Kpler claim that 23 million barrels of crude oil are flowing through the Strait of Hormuz every 24 hours. Patrick Henningsen says he finds a return to pre-war volumes impossible, calls the figure likely disinformation ahead of the US elections, and says a Brent futures price near $108 a barrel is well below the $150 to $200 he says it costs to move a barrel from the dock into a refinery.
Patrick Henningsen and Daniel Davis break down the stunning developments in the Saudi-Yemen war that have the US AND Israel moving toward all out war. Meanwhile, Yemen and Iran have both stepped up their strike targets dramatically as Riyadh burns overnight and a record number of tankers get taken out in the Strait of Hormuz.
What does all of this mean from both a military and geopolitical perspective? We traverse the biggest flashpoints in the ongoing war between US-led unipolarity and the rising multipolar world now finding big momentum in West Asia.
Danny Haiphong on Israel at the edge of civil war and Iran striking US Navy escorts in Hormuz. He says the CIA calls Israel on the brink of collapse, and that the picture is worse, as Iran confronts the US Navy and claims of a strong US position in the war are challenged.
Timeline: 00:00:00 Who is actually negotiating over Hormuz 00:00:57 Iran's account contradicts US claims 00:01:54 History of failed talks and the memorandum 00:02:55 Iran and Oman's single channel plan 00:03:53 Key point: a deal doesn't mean reopening 00:05:16 US and Gulf states oppose the agreement 00:06:40 Why would Iran give up its leverage 00:07:51 Does the US blockade stay in place 00:09:12 Toll or fund, who really controls it 00:11:13 Hardliner faction in Iran wants to resume war 00:14:35 The long war strategy explained 00:17:51 Iran's economic pressure and best path forward 00:21:48 Why closing Hormuz is a long term trap 00:24:07 Lessons from the JCPOA on trusting the US 00:27:37 Comparing Iran's choices to Assad's Syria
Description:
Strait of Hormuz news today: Washington says a deal to reopen the strait could come within 48 hours — but the Islamabad Memorandum's free-passage clause expires on 16 August, and the arrangement replacing it is being negotiated in Muscat. Pepe Escobar and Zulfiqar Ali on the US–Iran MOU deadline, the Iran–Oman Hormuz agreement, and who is actually writing the terms.
What Article 5 of the memorandum actually says and why the sixty-day free-passage window matters more than the headline. The fee structure reportedly under negotiation between Tehran and Muscat, and how it collides with the freedom-of-movement framing given to markets this morning.
Why crude moved today. The Pakistan channel: Ishaq Dar's invitation to Foreign Minister Araghchi, and the reported parliamentary visit stacked against Independence Day on 14 August and the expiry of the clock on 16 August. The Saudi reversal, the weekend phone call, and the strike that did not happen.
Analysis by Pepe Escobar, geopolitical analyst and correspondent, and Zulfiqar Ali, Transition Protocol. This episode distinguishes throughout between publicly confirmed developments and single-source reporting from our own channels; both are labelled as such on screen.
Description:
Why did Trump cancel the Iran strike? Larry Johnson tells Transition Protocol that launch orders had already gone out for after 6 PM Eastern, and the pull-back came after that point. Larry Johnson and Zulfiqar Ali discuss Gulf warnings, Tehran's five conditions, GCC divergence, China's role in Iranian air defence, and diesel/aviation fuel constraints.