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Professor Robert Pape joins to discuss Trump's nightmare scenario unfolding as the Iran War escalation trap squeezes US hegemony to the breaking point. Iran has just launched a devastating preemptive strike and the trap isn't just set, it's igniting a global fire storm unseen in the history of geopolitics.
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Iran told Trump "get lost." Sources with direct contact to Islamabad and Tehran tell Transition Protocol that Trump offered Iran a 10-day cessation of hostilities this week — and was refused. Then, through Qatar, the White House asked Iran to allow "performative strikes" with no retaliation. Iran refused again.
Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir has stopped returning Trump's calls after being sent to Tehran twice and reneged on twice. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed despite official claims it is "wide open," CENTCOM has re-stood up a 24/7 battle staff, and Iran's retaliation doctrine is now 2-to-1, 3-to-1, 5-to-1 with a war plan built to run through the US midterms.
Larry Johnson explains why the bond market — not the Pentagon — is forcing Trump to back down: Treasury yields are rising and, in his words, "nobody's buying." Pepe Escobar breaks down the tanker-for-tanker gamble that could detonate global shipping insurance, Ghalibaf's warning that "if we cannot export oil, nobody will," and the SCO development bank being built outside the US dollar at Bishkek and Vladivostok ahead of the BRICS summit in India. Zulfiqar Ali reports Tehran's final position: diplomacy only through the Islamabad MOU — no more negotiations.
Guests: Larry Johnson, former CIA analyst and State Department counter-terrorism official; Pepe Escobar, veteran geopolitical correspondent covering BRICS, SCO and Eurasia from the ground; hosted by Zulfiqar Ali. Inside-source claims in this episode are attributed and identified on screen as developing; nothing unverified is presented as settled fact. Transition Protocol is a serious, source-driven geopolitical and economic analysis channel — evidence-based reporting on global power shifts and their financial consequences. Subscribe and join us on Substack for twice-weekly briefings
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In this episode of Silk and Steel, Carl Zha speaks with Dr. Warwick Powell about Trump's renewed campaign of maximum economic pressure against Iran, the threat of secondary sanctions against countries doing business with Tehran, and why China may be the critical factor that determines whether the strategy succeeds or fails.
Powell argues that decades of sanctions and the latest military campaign have failed to achieve Washington's stated objectives. Now, with the US facing economic and political pressures at home, the Trump administration may be trying to create the appearance of action while avoiding an escalation that could produce even greater economic pain.
The discussion goes far beyond sanctions.
China's growing economic relationship with Iran, Russia's position, the Strait of Hormuz, and the emergence of new regional partnerships may be pointing toward something much larger: the beginnings of a post-US Persian Gulf security and economic architecture.
The conversation examines whether Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Iran could become part of a new regional configuration — and what role China and Russia could play as economic and strategic backstops.
The episode also explores the deeper problem facing Washington: what happens when a declining hegemon tries to prevent the emergence of a new international order?
And with a potential Xi Jinping–Trump summit approaching and the US midterm elections looming, Powell explains why escalating rhetoric against China may be driven as much by American domestic politics as by foreign policy.
Topics Covered
Trump's new “economic D-Day” against Iran
Why decades of sanctions have failed to force regime change
The limits of US secondary sanctions
Why China is central to Iran's economy
China's response to US sanctions
Russia's potential role
The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz
The changing Persian Gulf security architecture
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Iran
China's rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia
China's expanding role across Eurasia
The emergence of a possible post-US regional order
Why Washington may be accelerating the changes it wants to stop
American exceptionalism and the struggle to accept a multipolar world
The US military-industrial complex
Trump, Xi and the next phase of US-China relations
US sanctions and tariffs ahead of the midterm elections
America's increasingly fragile economic picture
The AI investment boom and the US economy
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Trump called Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir repeatedly — "find me an off-ramp" — according to a source close to Munir cited by Zulfiqar Ali.
Munir went to Tehran and, Zulfiqar reports, persuaded a reluctant Iran to offer Washington a way out; Trump rejected it because he could not present it as a victory.
Days later the Strait of Hormuz tanker incident restarted the bombing. The call-level details are Zulfiqar's sourced reporting and have not been independently verified; the 14-point Islamabad MOU is public (link below).
Pepe Escobar then lays out what Washington won't: Iran's actual terms (return to the MOU or Hormuz stays shut), the timeline Tehran is reported to be planning for, the endurance contest over interceptors and resupply, and why the global economy cannot sustain a forever war at the world's most important chokepoint.
Then the story the West ignored this week: the SCO summit in Bishkek. The declaration on the attack on Iran and "indivisible security"; the proposed SCO energy consortium and development bank outside the dollar system;
Mongolia and Afghanistan moving toward membership; Pakistan's 2027 chairmanship; and the Saudi–Pakistan–Turkey Mecca Defence Agreement moving from paper to institution. What is confirmed, what is developing, and what it means for oil, the dollar and the next phase of the war.
Pepe Escobar is a veteran geopolitical analyst who has covered the SCO since its 2001 founding. Zulfiqar Ali's reporting draws on sources inside Pakistan's military and diplomatic leadership. Transition Protocol is an independent, source-driven channel; claims from insiders are labelled as such on screen. Subscribe and turn on notifications — tomorrow: Larry Johnson on Vladivostok and the Eastern Economic Forum.
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BREAKING: US is attacking Iran as war spirals out of control. Journalist and filmmaker Abby Martin joins the show for the first time to tell us how her new film investigating the inner workings of the US military and its impact on the planet relates to the restart of the Iran war. She is joined by rapper and journalist Lowkey for a massive discussion on why Trump and the US empire's war is going worse than you think.
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Prof. John Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor in the Political Science Department at the University of Chicago
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IRAN HAS SIGNALLED IT MAY OPEN THE NUCLEAR FILE — and the Strait of Hormuz has 72 hours to prove whether the deal is real.
Pepe Escobar and Zulfiqar Ali break down the Iran–US architecture now being assembled through Pakistani mediation: the closed Strait of Hormuz, the war-risk insurance premiums that will move before any government speaks, the six billion dollars sitting in Qatari banks, and the three-capital joint statement that sources say could land within 48 hours. Sources close to the talks indicate Iranian negotiators may show flexibility on the nuclear dossier at a later stage — a reversal from the position held a day earlier.
Also in this episode: why Iran has shut Omani territorial waters to transiting ships and taken control of the whole strait; why Pakistan has refused to enforce US secondary sanctions on Iran — described here as a first in its history — alongside coordinated foreign-ministry pushback from Russia and China; the role of former Pakistani army chief Raheel Sharif in carrying the framework to Riyadh and onward to Washington; the 40 million Pakistani Shias offered to Tehran as a guarantee of good faith; and the 60-to-90-day framework of indirect talks and cessation of hostilities now under discussion, with Pakistan as mediator and Qatar as the financial channel. Islamabad and Switzerland are both being pushed as the signing venue.
Pepe Escobar is a veteran geopolitical correspondent who has covered Eurasian politics and energy for decades; Zulfiqar Ali reports from direct contacts across the Pakistani and Iranian political and military leadership. Claims sourced to those contacts are marked DEVELOPING on screen and are not independently verified. Transition Protocol is a source-driven geopolitics channel covering de-dollarization, BRICS, the multipolar order and the financial consequences of global power shifts. Subscribe for the follow-up the moment the joint statement lands.
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Pakistan is the latest country to hit back after the White House threatened countries who trade with Iran. China has already said it won’t be taking orders from America. So is this another failed bid by Donald Trump to bend Iran and its backers to his will?
Or could this actually work? Several senior Iranian leaders have recently acknowledged the economic pain that the country and its people are feeling.
On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Mohammed Marandi, a professor at Tehran University and a former adviser to Iran’s nuclear negotiating team to get a view from inside Iran.
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A source described by Zulfiqar Ali as the person drafting a Pakistani announcement says Iran and the United States have agreed on a contemporaneous first step: a controlled reopening of the Strait of Hormuz alongside U.S. sanctions and naval-blockade relief.
That claim is not yet publicly corroborated. What is verified is that Pakistan’s mediation channel is active, Iran and Oman are working on a temporary maritime corridor, Hormuz remains severely disrupted, and Washington has just intensified sanctions pressure.
In this urgent Transition Protocol conversation, Pepe Escobar and Larry C. Johnson stress-test the reported Trump–Iran off-ramp: who moves first, what “simultaneous” action would actually mean, whether a 60–90 day indirect process exists, how an oil and fuel shock changes Washington’s choices, and why Trump—or a third-party spoiler—could still collapse the window. The central question is not whether officials sound hopeful. It is whether reciprocal action becomes observable.
Zulfiqar Ali brings source-based reporting from Pakistani and Iranian contacts; Pepe Escobar and former CIA analyst Larry C. Johnson provide geopolitical and security analysis. Transition Protocol is a source-driven geopolitical and economic analysis channel focused on evidence, power shifts, and real-world consequences. Source claims in this episode are identified as developing or uncorroborated where appropriate.
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Iran has told Washington that if the United States succeeds in economically suffocating it, not a drop of oil will leave the Gulf — not from Saudi Arabia, not the UAE, not Qatar, not anywhere.
That message was carried out of Tehran this week by Field Marshal Asim Munir and Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, and delivered to the acting US ambassador in Islamabad within hours of their return.
Pepe Escobar and Zulfiqar Ali break down the full sequence — the Trump phone call that started it, the six-point mechanism now on the table, the Strait of Hormuz deal-breaker, and the message from Beijing that landed in the room while the talks were still running.
Also in this episode — what Iran is demanding before it returns to the table (frozen assets, sanctions relief, an end to the naval blockade); why the new US Treasury sanctions package is functionally aimed at China; the single American decision that would collapse the entire process overnight; Iran's four-step escalation ladder and the NPT exit that sits on the first rung; and why both analysts now describe this as the last chance saloon. Chapter markers below.
Pepe Escobar is a globally recognised geopolitical correspondent covering Eurasia, BRICS and the multipolar transition. Zulfiqar Ali reports from direct channels in Islamabad and Tehran. Transition Protocol is a source-driven geopolitical and economic analysis channel focused on evidence-based reporting and high-signal breakdowns of global power shifts and their financial consequences. Some claims in this episode are single-source and are identified on screen as such.
Col. Lawrence Wilkerson discusses Iran's stunning response to Trump's 'D-Day' attack as the march to World War 3 accelerates. Trump's economic and military operation is backfiring badly already, and China & Russia are giving Iran a boost to its devastating retaliation underway. Join us as we analyze all of this and more in geopolitics!
Alexander Mercouris and The Duran on Scott Bessent's Operation Economic Outcast and Washington's economic war with China. Episode 2607.
Timeline:
00:00:00 Recap of Bessent's D-Day statement and Operation Economic Outcast
00:00:51 Mercouris explains why this is really targeting China
00:01:17 The history of the US China tariff standoff and rare earths
00:02:21 Legal UN sanctions versus unilateral US sanctions
00:03:24 Why this accelerates the world's move away from the dollar
00:04:51 Bessent effectively becomes the general running the Iran conflict
00:06:59 Bessent's overconfidence and dislike of China
00:09:45 Why the real target is eighty percent about China
00:16:34 China Russia and Iran set to emerge stronger from this
00:17:04 Quick take on the Canada tariff dispute and Mark Carney
