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Alex Krainer | “It’s Going to Annihilate Our Savings” — Bond Market Turned the Day the Iran War Began | Sep. 22, 2026
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Source: Transition Protocol youtube
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Iran says its forces recovered a U.S.-operated underwater drone at the Strait of Hormuz. The United States says the Anduril Dive-LD malfunctioned during a survey mission. In this episode, defence analyst Pravin Sawhney joins Zulfiqar Ali to explain what the vehicle can do, why its 6,000-metre operating depth and roughly 10-day endurance matter, and what the incident may reveal about the underwater contest around the world’s most important oil chokepoint.
The discussion also examines Iran’s confirmed ballistic-missile launches toward a U.S. aircraft carrier and destroyer, Tehran’s newly announced maritime restricted zone, the Iran–Oman shipping corridor, the Pakistan–Saudi Arabia–Türkiye defence framework, the Yemen escalation and the approaching BRICS summit in New Delhi. Damage claims, casualty reports and private-source assertions are identified as disputed or unverified rather than presented as settled fact.
Pravin Sawhney is a defence analyst and author focused on military technology and the changing character of war. Transition Protocol is an independent, source-driven geopolitical channel examining shifts in military power, global finance and the emerging multipolar order. Subscribe for high-signal reporting that separates verified developments from analyst judgment and source claims.
Source: Transition Protocol youtube
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A source described by Zulfiqar Ali as the person drafting a Pakistani announcement says Iran and the United States have agreed on a contemporaneous first step: a controlled reopening of the Strait of Hormuz alongside U.S. sanctions and naval-blockade relief.
That claim is not yet publicly corroborated. What is verified is that Pakistan’s mediation channel is active, Iran and Oman are working on a temporary maritime corridor, Hormuz remains severely disrupted, and Washington has just intensified sanctions pressure.
In this urgent Transition Protocol conversation, Pepe Escobar and Larry C. Johnson stress-test the reported Trump–Iran off-ramp: who moves first, what “simultaneous” action would actually mean, whether a 60–90 day indirect process exists, how an oil and fuel shock changes Washington’s choices, and why Trump—or a third-party spoiler—could still collapse the window. The central question is not whether officials sound hopeful. It is whether reciprocal action becomes observable.
Zulfiqar Ali brings source-based reporting from Pakistani and Iranian contacts; Pepe Escobar and former CIA analyst Larry C. Johnson provide geopolitical and security analysis. Transition Protocol is a source-driven geopolitical and economic analysis channel focused on evidence, power shifts, and real-world consequences. Source claims in this episode are identified as developing or uncorroborated where appropriate.
Source: Transition Protocol youtube
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Iran has been formally invited to join the Mecca Agreement — the trilateral defense pact between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey — with enthusiastic engagement already underway between Islamabad and Tehran, according to sources detailed in this episode.
The same day, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s long-promised "maximum pressure" sanctions rollout landed with no new named targets, prompting military analyst Larry Johnson to call it "a mouse fart" instead of the "volcanic eruption" that had been advertised.
Host Zulfiqar Ali and Larry Johnson break down what it means that Bahrain has asked to join the Pakistan-Saudi military pact, why the United States is now in a structural sour-crude oil shortage, and how China’s multi-year effort to broker Saudi-Iran détente is now visibly reshaping the Persian Gulf.
Larry Johnson is a former CIA analyst and military analyst who has covered Middle East security and U.S. foreign policy for decades. Zulfiqar Ali reports directly from sources inside Pakistani political and military circles. Some claims in this episode are based on privileged source reporting and are clearly marked as developing rather than independently confirmed.
Transition Protocol is a source-driven geopolitical and economic analysis channel focused on evidence-based reporting on the shift away from a unipolar world order, de-dollarization, and great-power realignment.
Source: Transition Protocol youtube
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On Transition Protocol, Pepe Escobar walks through a tightly packed Iran–Pakistan–Eurasia brief: a reported secret six-hour meeting between Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian, and what a “pivot” in Tehran’s internal and regional posture could signal.
Escobar also flags Pakistan’s Mecca-linked diplomacy as a potential shock to wider Eurasian alignments—how religious, security, and trade vectors can move together when great-power pressure is high.
The conversation ties these moves to the broader multipolar map: Iranian decision-making under stress, Islamabad’s balancing act, and why opaque elite meetings matter more than the daily headline cycle.
Source: Transition Protocol youtube
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Transition Protocol discusses: Danny Haiphong :Iran to US- Meet 6 DEMANDS or Hormuz Stays SHUT-What Happens If the US Says NO.
Source: Transition Protocol youtube
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Strait of Hormuz news today: Washington says a deal to reopen the strait could come within 48 hours — but the Islamabad Memorandum's free-passage clause expires on 16 August, and the arrangement replacing it is being negotiated in Muscat. Pepe Escobar and Zulfiqar Ali on the US–Iran MOU deadline, the Iran–Oman Hormuz agreement, and who is actually writing the terms.
What Article 5 of the memorandum actually says and why the sixty-day free-passage window matters more than the headline. The fee structure reportedly under negotiation between Tehran and Muscat, and how it collides with the freedom-of-movement framing given to markets this morning.
Why crude moved today. The Pakistan channel: Ishaq Dar's invitation to Foreign Minister Araghchi, and the reported parliamentary visit stacked against Independence Day on 14 August and the expiry of the clock on 16 August. The Saudi reversal, the weekend phone call, and the strike that did not happen.
Analysis by Pepe Escobar, geopolitical analyst and correspondent, and Zulfiqar Ali, Transition Protocol. This episode distinguishes throughout between publicly confirmed developments and single-source reporting from our own channels; both are labelled as such on screen.
Source: Transition Protocol youtube
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Why did Trump cancel the Iran strike? Larry Johnson tells Transition Protocol that launch orders had already gone out for after 6 PM Eastern, and the pull-back came after that point. Larry Johnson and Zulfiqar Ali discuss Gulf warnings, Tehran's five conditions, GCC divergence, China's role in Iranian air defence, and diesel/aviation fuel constraints.