Description:
The discussion centers on why diplomacy over the Russia–Ukraine war is failing and why, in John Mearsheimer’s view, the conflict will be decided militarily rather than through negotiations.
Mearsheimer argues that talks involving U.S. envoys and Russia are largely a charade. Russia participates to appear reasonable and to maintain relations with President Trump, but its demands—addressing what it calls the “root causes” of the war—are non-negotiable, while the U.S., Europe, and Ukraine refuse to accept them. As a result, he says the war will be settled on the battlefield, not at the negotiating table.
He emphasizes Ukraine’s deepening internal crisis, particularly manpower shortages. According to Ukraine’s own defense minister, around 2 million Ukrainians are evading mobilization and roughly 500,000 soldiers are absent or have deserted, on top of combat losses. Mearsheimer says this guarantees eventual defeat; the only question is how long it takes.
Compounding this, Russia’s systematic attacks on Ukraine’s electrical grid are crippling major cities, including Kyiv, whose mayor has encouraged residents to leave. Air defense effectiveness is declining as power infrastructure collapses, making missile interception even harder. He also highlights Ukraine’s severe demographic decline, calling it devastating and long-term.
Responding to claims that Russia is advancing slowly, Mearsheimer frames the war as one of attrition, where casualty ratios matter more than rapid territorial gains. He argues Russia is winning this attritional fight and will eventually take all of Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and likely expand further, albeit slowly.
Finally, he dismisses Western narratives that portray Russia as near collapse as disinformation, comparing them to misleading coverage of Iran and Venezuela. He also waves off proposals like Senator Lindsey Graham’s call for extreme secondary sanctions, calling them political theater that will not change the outcome of the war.
Mearsheimer argues that talks involving U.S. envoys and Russia are largely a charade. Russia participates to appear reasonable and to maintain relations with President Trump, but its demands—addressing what it calls the “root causes” of the war—are non-negotiable, while the U.S., Europe, and Ukraine refuse to accept them. As a result, he says the war will be settled on the battlefield, not at the negotiating table.
He emphasizes Ukraine’s deepening internal crisis, particularly manpower shortages. According to Ukraine’s own defense minister, around 2 million Ukrainians are evading mobilization and roughly 500,000 soldiers are absent or have deserted, on top of combat losses. Mearsheimer says this guarantees eventual defeat; the only question is how long it takes.
Compounding this, Russia’s systematic attacks on Ukraine’s electrical grid are crippling major cities, including Kyiv, whose mayor has encouraged residents to leave. Air defense effectiveness is declining as power infrastructure collapses, making missile interception even harder. He also highlights Ukraine’s severe demographic decline, calling it devastating and long-term.
Responding to claims that Russia is advancing slowly, Mearsheimer frames the war as one of attrition, where casualty ratios matter more than rapid territorial gains. He argues Russia is winning this attritional fight and will eventually take all of Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and likely expand further, albeit slowly.
Finally, he dismisses Western narratives that portray Russia as near collapse as disinformation, comparing them to misleading coverage of Iran and Venezuela. He also waves off proposals like Senator Lindsey Graham’s call for extreme secondary sanctions, calling them political theater that will not change the outcome of the war.
