Netanyahu says Iran's leaders must go. Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson explains Iran's answer: a "dead man's switch" that lets 31 regional commanders fire at pre-selected targets on their own — and why Russian planes, he says, are flying diplomats out.
Timeline:
00:04:21 Russian arms in, diplomats out? What Johnson says the Russian flights signal — and what our host's Tehran sources say landed after Lavrov left (10:15).
00:05:09 The dead man's switch: "In the event of a decapitation strike… The 31 regional commanders of the IRGC have been authorized unilaterally to initiate strikes on their own."
00:11:44 The window: "as early tonight… tomorrow… if it does not happen by Sunday… highly unlikely."
00:24:43 The aim: Netanyahu says Trump "has signed off" on removing Iran's leadership. Johnson: "that I doubt."
Larry Wilkerson tells Nima Alkhorshid that US and Israeli exercises over Iraq look like preparation for a strike on Iran, and that Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump have different aims in that war. He puts the chance that Iran tries to preempt, if it is convinced of the timing, at about 50/50.
Fmr CIA analyst Larry Johnson and Col. Lawrence Wilkerson discuss the massive build up to all-out war by the US & Israel, and why Iran's mosaic defense doctrine carries many surprises that will not only wreak devastation on the aggressors but also change the world order forever.
Description:
A senior Pakistani source tells host Zulfiqar Ali that Pakistan has picked Iran's side against US and Saudi pressure — after consulting Beijing — and that "nobody can save MBS". Live, Larry Johnson reads Haaretz's report that Washington now favours a preemptive strike on Iran.
01:51 Pakistan's choice: "stand firmly on the side of Iran" — per a Pakistani insider.
02:45 "Six corridors… back to where they were."
04:52 The message to MBS.
06:52 The first strike, as Haaretz reports it — and the US embassy order Larry Johnson reads as a war signal.
10:43 "Nothing left": what was said in Tehran about an Israeli nuclear strike — reported by the host's source.
What you'll learn: which side Pakistan has taken and who signed off on it · why Pakistan has told MBS to choose · what Haaretz reported about a US preemptive strike · what the Gulf embassy order does and does not mean · what closing both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb would cost the world.
Sourcing note: Pakistan's decision, the consultation with China's Wang Yi, the message to MBS and the remark in Tehran are our host's own sourcing from a senior Pakistani source and cannot be independently verified.
Public record: Field Marshal Munir was in Tehran on 20–21 October and met SNSC Secretary Mohsen Rezaei; Pakistan reopened its Taftan and Gabd–Rimdan crossings with Iran on 20 October after closing them on 17 October, citing security; LPG imports remained blocked.
The "six corridors" are the source's account. Haaretz's correspondent reported an apparent US shift toward a preemptive strike, citing White House sources — that is the "reportedly" in our title; Haaretz also reported the same day that Trump had blocked an early-October strike.
Reuters reports the US ordered some embassy staff and families out of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Jordan, with US officials citing Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia; no report lists Kuwait. Fars reported explosions of unknown origin in Sirik, southern Iran — not Iraq. Pakistan, Türkiye, Qatar and Indonesia signed the "Badr" defence-industry MoU in Doha on 21 October.
Description:
Trump said Russia was doing “very little, if anything” to help Iran. Today Sergey Lavrov sat beside Abbas Araghchi in Tehran. Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson asks whether that was a coincidence — and host Zulfiqar Ali’s Pakistani and Turkish contacts say the leader who is really on his own is MBS.
— 09:29 Lavrov in Tehran: “You think that was just a coincidence?” — 19:55 MBS on his own: why Pakistan and Turkey have cut their support, per our host’s contacts — and China’s position.— 30:48 “There are no good military options”: Trump’s only way out, according to Larry Johnson.
What you’ll learn: why Lavrov’s visit contradicts Trump’s claim about Russia · why Pakistan’s border “closure” is two gates, not the border · what our host’s sources say about MBS, Pakistan, Turkey and China · why Iran wants the Islamabad MOU, not the JCPOA · what Johnson expects before the 3 November election.
Sourcing note: The reports on Pakistan’s and Turkey’s support for MBS, on China’s position, on sea traffic through Gwadar and on US helicopters off Pakistan’s coast are our host’s own sourcing and cannot be independently verified. Johnson’s report of a Quantico meeting of senior officers on 20 October had not been publicly reported at the time of publishing.
Public record: Lavrov met Araghchi in Tehran on 19 October and said Russia is committed to its 20-year strategic partnership with Iran; Pakistan suspended trade at the Taftan and Gabd crossings (18 October; some reports say four crossings) and Iran’s foreign ministry cited “technical issues”; Trump said on 16 October that “Israel’s been very helpful to Saudi Arabia”; IRGC Brigadier General Hossein Zarifi was killed in Saravan on 24 September; Pakistan’s information ministry on 18 October called claims that the US Navy operates from Pakistani territory against Iran “baseless”.
Military analyst Andrei Martyanov joins former CIA officer Larry Johnson to discuss Russia’s place in European civilization and the historical forces behind its confrontation with the West.
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson, with Zulfiqar Ali on Transition Protocol, on why Trump's MOAB can't crack Iran's Pickaxe Mountain. Ali's sources in Islamabad say MBS asked Pakistan for help, repeatedly, and Pakistan said no. Johnson, who briefed a UN Security Council Arria-formula meeting on Wednesday, says Europe will start a war with Russia it will regret.
The show also covers what the MOAB can and cannot do, why Pakistan will not fight Ansar Allah for MBS, what Pakistani and Turkish officers told MBS about Israelis in his war room, how Johnson expects the war to end and China's role, and why diesel is short in a country that makes more than it uses.
The Islamabad decision, MBS's requests and the war-room account are the host's own sourcing and cannot be independently verified. Johnson's Europe and MBS forecasts are his analysis.
Timeline:
00:03:56 The MOAB: why an 11-ton air-burst bomb can't reach a facility under a mountain
00:10:21 No rescue: what Islamabad decided, per the host's sources
00:31:38 At the UN: the US tone shift, Nebenzia's answer, and Europe's hard line
Larry Johnson on reports that Yemeni forces struck two Aramco headquarters in Saudi Arabia and published footage of a hit on a Saudi Typhoon, described as the second fighter jet after an F-15. He also recounts speaking at a Russian-chaired UN Security Council session in New York on civilian casualties in Ukraine, and says the US tone toward Russia has softened.
Has Iran just leaked US-Israeli war plans, which according to Iranian intel, could be carried at any moment? Fmr CIA analyst Larry Johnson and retired US Army Colonel and Chief of Staff Lawrence Wilkerson react to a bombshell report that details the deep war preparations of Trump and Netanyahu when no one was watching, and give expert insights into the Yemen-Saudi war that cannot be ignored as Middle East oil comes under massive crisis.
Following their recent trip to Russia, Professor John Mearsheimer joins former CIA analyst Larry Johnson to examine why Western hostility toward Moscow has intensified long after the Cold War.
Pepe Escobar and Larry Johnson with Zulfiqar Ali on Transition Protocol. A senior source in Pakistan's military establishment told the show, in answer to five questions, that no Pakistani aircraft entered Yemeni airspace — "None. Zero." — and that the foreigners inside Saudi Arabia's war are mostly American: 110 American advisors, two Pakistani radar specialists and two Turkish technicians.
CNN has separately reported more than 100 US military advisers supporting the Saudi campaign. On 8 October Pakistan's Information Ministry called a New York Times report of Pakistani jets "fake and fabricated". The source says every Pakistani unit is around Mecca and Medina, under Pakistani command, not Najran.
Escobar says any move toward the border would make Pakistani forces "legitimate targets". Also Saudi Arabia's money, Trump's pause on Iran until after 3 November, and what a senior Iranian source told the host two hours before recording.
The five answers and the 110 / 2 / 2 figures come from that Pakistani military source. The Iranian remarks are a senior Iranian source speaking to the host. Larry Johnson's account of damage at Abqaiq and on the East–West pipeline has not been independently confirmed.
Larry Johnson and Col. Lawrence Wilkerson with Danny Haiphong on a report they treat as a CIA leak: how much trouble Israel is in, and why it is pressing, with US help, to restart the Iran war despite that warning.
Johnson is a former CIA analyst. Wilkerson is a retired US Army colonel and former chief of staff.
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson and former U.S. Army officer Stanislav Krapivnik examine why Europe is drifting toward direct confrontation with Russia despite lacking the industrial capacity to sustain a major war. Johnson puts the risk of exchanges of fire within seven months at 70 percent.
They also discuss Ukraine’s battlefield position, Russia’s artillery and glide-bomb advantage, whether Israel can survive its current course and the danger that U.S. escalation against Iran could accelerate nuclear proliferation.
Fmr CIA analyst Larry Johnson and Col Lawrence Wilkerson discuss the Israeli hoax that is setting the pretext for renewed strikes as Trump signals a return to full-scale military action is coming and fast. Iran has blown open the plot and the region is on maximum alert for another round of war.
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson with Nima Alkhorshid on Dialogue Works — smoke rising near Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, and whether it was a direct hit.
Description:
Larry Johnson welcomes Pepe Escobar and Viktor Bout on the International Unity Club. Bout, back from 12 Russian regions, says voters are focused on the conflict with the collective West on Ukrainian territory, and on the everyday problems he heard from business people, students, and families.
On the Arctic, Johnson names four openings: the northern transport corridor, fisheries, oil and gas, and rare earth minerals. He says U.S. academics could not agree which should come first, and that the United States has only two old diesel icebreakers. Bout says the priority is the Northern Sea Route.
Russia has been building icebreakers and ports from Murmansk and Arkhangelsk, opening regions such as the Yamal gas fields. He argues Siberia and the North are part of Russia, harsh to live in, and that only Russia is in a position to develop them while keeping the languages and way of life of the northern peoples.
Description:
Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day plan on Saturday. Transition Protocol’s sources say Tehran is now ready to move to break the U.S. blockade after September 30 — and former CIA analyst Larry Johnson explains why Washington hasn’t fired back.
Host Zulfiqar Ali and Larry Johnson on: Iran’s strikes in the Strait of Hormuz and the missing U.S. response · why Johnson calls the administration’s oil-flow claims “an absolute total lie” · what a Pentagon casualty acknowledgement suggests about which ship was hit · the reported tanker and transport build-up at Al Udeid · China’s mixed signals · why Pakistan won’t fight the Houthis (per our Islamabad sources) · a rift at the top of the Saudi royal family (per our sources) · Netanyahu’s trip to Abu Dhabi · the Fairford arrests · the midterm clock · and why Johnson expects no recovery in Gulf oil flows for at least a year.
SOURCING: Claims attributed to “our sources” come from the host’s contacts and have not been independently verified. Larry Johnson’s views are his own analysis. Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal was reported on 26 September. The five men arrested near RAF Fairford were released on bail on 28 September; UK police say inquiries continue, and Iran’s embassy has denied any link.
Fresh from 16 days in Russia, former CIA officer Larry Johnson offers a firsthand report from Moscow and St. Petersburg. He recounts an informal dinner with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and meetings with Russian officials, academics and military figures.
Johnson examines the country’s political and economic life as he encountered it, explains why Moscow no longer regards Washington as a reliable negotiating partner and describes how Russia has become a refuge for political exiles from the West. He also relays a stark warning from General Apti Alaudinov about the growing danger of a direct conflict with Europe.
Description:
Russia is warning Europe that continued military pressure could bring direct strikes. Larry Johnson says Iran may refuse to wait for another attack, while the closed Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab are already reshaping fuel, shipping and political calculations.
In this Transition Protocol briefing, Larry Johnson and Zulfiqar Ali examine the Russia-Europe red line, the reported risk to Al-Udeid in Qatar, Iran’s conditions for reopening Hormuz, Ansar Allah’s advance in Yemen, the Saudi royal dispute and the diesel shock created by longer shipping routes. Source-based claims and predictions are identified as such in the conversation and on screen.
Topics: Russia Europe tensions, Iran US escalation, Strait of Hormuz, Al-Udeid, Ansar Allah, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, diesel prices, shipping routes, China, Pakistan and the Mecca Agreement.
Description:
From Moscow, Larry Johnson and Pepe Escobar argue that BRICS is splitting from within. Escobar says India and the UAE kept the New Delhi declaration from condemning the war on Iran, even as it denounced secondary sanctions.
He says Narendra Modi accused China in a closed session of weaponizing rare earths, and that Xi Jinping then skipped the gala. BRICS Pay, he adds, is still only an India-Russia trial, and Sergey Lavrov's refusal of a secretariat leaves clashes such as India-China and UAE-Iran unmanaged. Johnson floats a tighter core of Russia, Iran, and China. Escobar traces the group instead to Yevgeny Primakov's 1998 Russia-India-China idea, and Johnson says Moscow has ended India's oil discount.
Description:
Trump blamed Ukraine for America’s record diesel prices. Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson runs the numbers — and says the real cause is the Gulf, $11–12 diesel is possible in California, and relief is at least two months away even if the war ended tonight.
Recorded from Moscow on 21 September 2026, on the eve of UN General Assembly week. Johnson and host Zulfiqar Ali cover why Russia’s lost diesel exports can’t explain the spike, what the Houthi attacks on Yanbu and control of Bab al-Mandab have done to supply, why Saudi Arabia may be forced to sell US Treasuries, why Trump has so far refused to strike Yemen on Riyadh’s behalf, what our own sources say about Yemen’s next six weeks, and why Johnson expects Trump to meet Xi on Thursday from a weak position.
Sourcing note: forecasts and analysis are Larry Johnson’s. Items marked “our sources” are Transition Protocol’s own reporting and are not independently confirmed. Trump’s remarks on Ukraine and diesel: 13 September 2026. US diesel prices: AAA.
Transition Protocol is independent, audience-funded geopolitical analysis.
Description:
Hormuz was already blocked. Now Saudi Arabia's main escape route — the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea — is shut, the Houthis claim they shot down a Saudi F-15, and the Fed just raised rates.
Military analyst Larry and host Zulfiqar Ali explain how the Houthi offensive, the pipeline outage and record diesel prices connect — and why the only door being negotiated open may be an Iran-controlled corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, with a fee attached.
In this episode: why the Houthi offensive was planned months ago; what the Houthis' F-15 claim means for Saudi air power; Pakistan's reported answer to MBS; Iran's reported one-for-one tanker offer; the Pentagon inspector general's report on US bases; the Fed's first rate hike since 2023; $9.99 diesel in California; and whether the oil shock can ease before the 3 November midterms.
Sourcing note: the pipeline shutdown, the Fed decision and the Pentagon IG findings are publicly confirmed. The F-15 downing is a Houthi claim not confirmed by Saudi Arabia. Statements attributed to contacts in Tehran, Islamabad and Riyadh are our guests' sources and have not been independently verified. Predictions are the speakers' analysis.
Description:
American diesel just set an all-time record — $6.05 a gallon nationally, $7.87 in California, and six pumps in the state stuck at $9.999 because the hardware cannot display a fourth digit. On Sunday the President said the cause was Ukraine. Larry Johnson says it is the wrong war.
Recorded 14 September 2026. Military analyst Larry Johnson joins Dr. Zulfiqar Ali from Russia to explain the mechanism almost no one is reporting: roughly 70% of US refineries are configured for heavy and sour crude, the grades that used to arrive from Russia, Iran, Venezuela and the Persian Gulf. Those inputs are gone. You cannot make diesel from crude your refinery was not built to process — and no strategic reserve holds finished diesel.
Also in this episode, from sources in Tehran and Islamabad contacted within the hour before recording:
• Why Saudi Arabia was refused three times — twice by Washington, and once by Pakistan under the Mecca Defence Accord it signed in August, reportedly on the grounds that the Yemen war is "a pre-existing condition"
• Dr. Ali's reporting that MBS asked Field Marshal Asim Munir directly for military support and was turned down flat
• Why the UAE and Kuwait have repaired relations with Tehran, leaving Bahrain as the only holdout in the Gulf
• The arrangement taking shape behind the postponed Oman talks: a safe passage administered by Iran and Oman, with a toll the Gulf states are reportedly prepared to pay
• Larry Johnson's assessment that Donald Trump has two or three days to reverse course before the midterm economy is beyond recovery
• What the East–West pipeline shutdown means now that Yanbu holds only days of export stock
Description:
Washington said it would answer tanker for tanker. Iran struck US bases in Jordan and hit ships in the Gulf. By the time this conversation was recorded in St Petersburg, the American answer still had not come.
Zulfiqar Ali speaks with military analyst Larry Johnson about the Gulf confrontation, the diesel shortage that matters more than the crude price, Iran's exit from the dollar system through Chinese banking channels, Pakistan's emergence as Tehran's financial back door, and what the missile-versus-interceptor exchange over Jordan revealed about American air defence. Johnson also recounts a private dinner with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, and gives a blunt assessment of where Ukraine ends.
Larry Johnson is a former CIA analyst and former deputy director of the State Department's Office of Counterterrorism, speaking from St Petersburg. Transition Protocol is an independent, source-driven geopolitical and economic analysis channel.
This episode contains analysis, forecasts and claims attributed to the speakers and to their unnamed contacts. Several are single-source and have not been independently verified. Where accounts differ from official statements — including the scale of the Jordan strike — we have said so on screen. Consequential claims should be independently verified.
Description:
Former Director of the National Counterterrorism Center Joe Kent joins former CIA analyst Larry Johnson for an insider’s examination of how intelligence is collected, filtered and politicized before it reaches the White House.
Drawing on experience in special operations, the CIA and the NCTC, Kent explores the suppression of dissenting assessments, Washington’s dependence on foreign liaison services and why a system awash in classified data can still profoundly misread Iran, Russia and the wars it helps shape.
Description:
Iran told Trump "get lost." Sources with direct contact to Islamabad and Tehran tell Transition Protocol that Trump offered Iran a 10-day cessation of hostilities this week — and was refused. Then, through Qatar, the White House asked Iran to allow "performative strikes" with no retaliation. Iran refused again.
Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir has stopped returning Trump's calls after being sent to Tehran twice and reneged on twice. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed despite official claims it is "wide open," CENTCOM has re-stood up a 24/7 battle staff, and Iran's retaliation doctrine is now 2-to-1, 3-to-1, 5-to-1 with a war plan built to run through the US midterms.
Larry Johnson explains why the bond market — not the Pentagon — is forcing Trump to back down: Treasury yields are rising and, in his words, "nobody's buying." Pepe Escobar breaks down the tanker-for-tanker gamble that could detonate global shipping insurance, Ghalibaf's warning that "if we cannot export oil, nobody will," and the SCO development bank being built outside the US dollar at Bishkek and Vladivostok ahead of the BRICS summit in India. Zulfiqar Ali reports Tehran's final position: diplomacy only through the Islamabad MOU — no more negotiations.
Guests: Larry Johnson, former CIA analyst and State Department counter-terrorism official; Pepe Escobar, veteran geopolitical correspondent covering BRICS, SCO and Eurasia from the ground; hosted by Zulfiqar Ali. Inside-source claims in this episode are attributed and identified on screen as developing; nothing unverified is presented as settled fact. Transition Protocol is a serious, source-driven geopolitical and economic analysis channel — evidence-based reporting on global power shifts and their financial consequences. Subscribe and join us on Substack for twice-weekly briefings
Larry Johnson and Col. Lawrence Wilkerson with Danny Haiphong on Iranian strikes on US bases after a reported attack on a wedding party in southern Iran, and claimed heavy US Marine casualties.
Description:
Trump called Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir repeatedly — "find me an off-ramp" — according to a source close to Munir cited by Zulfiqar Ali.
Munir went to Tehran and, Zulfiqar reports, persuaded a reluctant Iran to offer Washington a way out; Trump rejected it because he could not present it as a victory.
Days later the Strait of Hormuz tanker incident restarted the bombing. The call-level details are Zulfiqar's sourced reporting and have not been independently verified; the 14-point Islamabad MOU is public (link below).
Pepe Escobar then lays out what Washington won't: Iran's actual terms (return to the MOU or Hormuz stays shut), the timeline Tehran is reported to be planning for, the endurance contest over interceptors and resupply, and why the global economy cannot sustain a forever war at the world's most important chokepoint.
Then the story the West ignored this week: the SCO summit in Bishkek. The declaration on the attack on Iran and "indivisible security"; the proposed SCO energy consortium and development bank outside the dollar system;
Mongolia and Afghanistan moving toward membership; Pakistan's 2027 chairmanship; and the Saudi–Pakistan–Turkey Mecca Defence Agreement moving from paper to institution. What is confirmed, what is developing, and what it means for oil, the dollar and the next phase of the war.
Pepe Escobar is a veteran geopolitical analyst who has covered the SCO since its 2001 founding. Zulfiqar Ali's reporting draws on sources inside Pakistan's military and diplomatic leadership. Transition Protocol is an independent, source-driven channel; claims from insiders are labelled as such on screen. Subscribe and turn on notifications — tomorrow: Larry Johnson on Vladivostok and the Eastern Economic Forum.
Larry Johnson talks with Nima Alkhorshid on Dialogue Works about reported U.S. strikes on two military sites on Iran's Larak Island, near a key oil chokepoint.
Description:
A source described by Zulfiqar Ali as the person drafting a Pakistani announcement says Iran and the United States have agreed on a contemporaneous first step: a controlled reopening of the Strait of Hormuz alongside U.S. sanctions and naval-blockade relief.
That claim is not yet publicly corroborated. What is verified is that Pakistan’s mediation channel is active, Iran and Oman are working on a temporary maritime corridor, Hormuz remains severely disrupted, and Washington has just intensified sanctions pressure.
In this urgent Transition Protocol conversation, Pepe Escobar and Larry C. Johnson stress-test the reported Trump–Iran off-ramp: who moves first, what “simultaneous” action would actually mean, whether a 60–90 day indirect process exists, how an oil and fuel shock changes Washington’s choices, and why Trump—or a third-party spoiler—could still collapse the window. The central question is not whether officials sound hopeful. It is whether reciprocal action becomes observable.
Zulfiqar Ali brings source-based reporting from Pakistani and Iranian contacts; Pepe Escobar and former CIA analyst Larry C. Johnson provide geopolitical and security analysis. Transition Protocol is a source-driven geopolitical and economic analysis channel focused on evidence, power shifts, and real-world consequences. Source claims in this episode are identified as developing or uncorroborated where appropriate.
Description:
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson blows lid off the secret CIA mission that flew to Moscow and why Russia and Iran were very much aware of what was happening when the US C17 landed on August 25th.
