Pepe Escobar on Transition Protocol. Flávio Bolsonaro reportedly crossed into Argentina on foot with just his ID; Argentina says it has no record of his entry, and his whereabouts are unknown. And MBS didn’t want the Tehran meeting at all: sources say Pakistan’s army chief persuaded him, and MBS sent his brother, Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman.
Timeline:
00:01:24 Bolsonaro’s son: on foot to Argentina, with only his ID — as reported.
00:04:25 What Trump said about Brazil’s vote — and about Lula.
00:25:59 Why MBS sent his brother to Tehran — per the person who organised the meeting.
00:35:01 What Riyadh asked Iran — and what Yemen did hours later.
Description:
Pepe Escobar's Russian contacts count 14 Ilyushin cargo flights into Iran — contents unknown. A senior Pakistani military officer told the host Pakistan would supply Iran "with everything that Iran needs" if war comes. And a source close to the Supreme Leader says two men set Iran's terms: Ghalibaf and Mohsen Rezaei. Plus Pakistan's energy decision, its new partners, and Brazil's vote.
What the episode covers: how Pakistan is balancing its people's energy needs against its IMF commitments; what a senior officer says Pakistan would do if war comes; who sets Tehran's terms for any deal with Washington; what Russia is committing to Iran, per Iranian and Russian sources; what the new Badr MoU means for Pakistan, Qatar, Türkiye and Indonesia; why nothing moves before the 3 November midterms.
Sourcing note: The Pakistani officer's account and the report of the two Iranian negotiators are the host's own sourcing and cannot be independently verified in full. The count of 14 Russian cargo flights is Pepe Escobar's information; he says their contents are unknown.
The Russian LPG cargo for Pakistan has not been confirmed — the host says so on air. Public record cited on the video: Pakistan's Commerce Ministry withdrew its 3 October suspension of trade at the Gabd and Taftan crossings on 16 October (Dawn); the Badr MoU was signed in Doha on 21 October by Pakistan, Türkiye, Qatar and Indonesia (Geo News); Iran International reported on 7 October that Ghalibaf's negotiating role was approved by the Supreme Leader; Lavrov met Araghchi in Tehran on 19 October (Al Jazeera); President Trump said on 8 October the US would not attack Iran before the midterms. The Brazil segment was recorded before polls closed; crowd figures quoted on air are not official estimates.
6:21 If war comes: what a senior Pakistani officer says Pakistan would do
8:00 14 Russian cargo planes, and what Escobar can and cannot say about what is inside
17:40 The two men who decide for Iran, per a source close to the Supreme Leader
Description:
MBS wants Pakistan. Trump needs Iran. Pakistan’s Field Marshal Munir is in Tehran — and our host’s sources say MBS gets a no. Pepe Escobar says what Munir carried: a quiet return of IAEA inspectors, for little more than the interest on Iran’s $6 billion in Qatar.
— 06:10 The offer: IAEA inspectors back in Iran, and what Iran would get in return — according to Pepe Escobar.
— 14:21 “Show us the money”: why Escobar says Tehran won’t take it — before the 3 November midterms.
— 30:01 What MBS wants from Pakistan, and why our host’s sources say Islamabad will refuse.
What you’ll learn: what Field Marshal Asim Munir carried into Tehran · why Washington wants a concession from Iran before the midterms · how sanctions, the IMF and the border gates squeeze Pakistan · what Lavrov proposed in Tehran · what our host’s sources say about China’s backing, the Riyadh war room and Saudi pressure.
Sourcing note: The Qatari–Pakistani IAEA idea and its price are Pepe Escobar’s account; we have not located them in public reporting. The Pakistan–MBS and China reports are our host’s own sourcing from Islamabad and Rawalpindi and cannot be independently verified.
The Najran delegation, the three Black Hawks and the Article 2 wording are as Escobar describes them; we have not located them. Escobar’s Balochistan remarks are a scenario, not a report. Public record: Fars said Munir’s trip was finalised on Monday 19 October; Reuters reported on 20 October — after this recording — that Mohsen Rezaei told Munir there would be “no talks with Washington until Tehran’s demands were met”, and that Iranian officials see “little prospect of a breakthrough before the November 3 vote”; Trump has said the US would not strike Iran again before 3 November. The 1934 Treaty of Taif was signed between Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
Nima Alkhorshid says Ansarallah has captured Jabal Han, a strategic mountain in the encirclement of Taizz, and that the siege is closing on Saudi-backed forces in a city of at least two million people. Pepe Escobar says a Najran tribal delegation pledged allegiance in Sanaa, and that Sergei Lavrov went to Tehran before Munir.
Description:
Pakistani military sources say Pakistani naval aircraft warned US helicopters away from the coast off Karachi. The same weekend, trade across the Iran–Pakistan land border crossings was halted — and our host’s sources say Iran has 400 targets locked, many of them in Israel. Zulfiqar Ali brings both accounts, checked in Islamabad and Tehran; Pepe Escobar, from Bangkok after midnight, brings the dollar-bypass talks the closure interrupted — and the one country whose cargo still crosses.
— 07:57 The Black Hawk encounter, per Pakistani military sources.
— 16:30 Except China: the cargo that still crosses, per our host’s sources.
— 27:17 Iran’s 400 locked targets: the warning our host’s sources relayed.
What you’ll learn: why Pakistan and Iran suspended trade at their border, and what officials on both sides say it was for · whether Washington pressured Islamabad — and the answer our host was given · what the US Navy is doing off Pakistan’s coast · why Chinese cargo is still moving · where Iran stands on the Mecca defence pact · what Egypt and the OIC are doing about Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen.
Sourcing note: The Black Hawk encounter, the Chinese-cargo exemption, the saboteur arrests and the position of US naval assets are our host’s own sourcing from Pakistani military, naval and coastal officials and cannot be independently verified; we found no public report of the encounter. “3 nautical miles” is the distance as reported to our host; Pakistan’s territorial sea extends 12 nautical miles, and the host says the helicopters did not enter Pakistani territory.
A Pakistani brigadier told our host the detained saboteurs were financed by the UAE; that is one officer’s allegation and has not been independently verified. The 3,000-truck figure and its banking cause are Pepe Escobar’s information.
Public record: Pakistan’s Ministry of Commerce suspended trade through the Taftan and Gabd-Rimdan crossings (memo of 16 October, announced 17 October); Pakistani officials cited security, counterterrorism and smuggling and said the border is likely to reopen soon; Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman called the closure temporary and cited “technical issues”; more than 2,000 containers were reported stranded at Gabd-Rimdan, while passenger traffic continued at Gabd-Rimdan.
The 400 locked targets are our host’s sourcing and cannot be independently verified. The Iran–Pakistan central bank meeting is Escobar’s reporting; the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings ran in Bangkok on 12–18 October. Iran’s interest in the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement is contested: our host’s sources say Iran has expressed interest; Escobar says it is not being discussed in Tehran; Iran’s foreign ministry said in August it had received no formal invitation.
Pepe Escobar with Zulfiqar Ali on Transition Protocol. Escobar says Iran is like a coiled cobra, ready to strike, and preparing to bypass the dollar.
A participant in Iran's Friday leadership meeting told Ali that if an attack comes from Dubai, Dubai will be finished as a commercial center. They also cover Iran's and Pakistan's central bank heads at the IMF meeting in Bangkok, and a report that Iranian oil may move to China over land.
The host says the Tehran meeting account, the Dubai and Oman lines, and the claim that Israelis have left Riyadh's war room are his own sourcing and cannot be independently verified.
Timeline:
00:02:59 Why Iran is a coiled cobra
00:15:42 IMF meeting in Bangkok
00:25:14 What Iran's leaders decided on Friday
Pakistani officers in Saudi Arabia's Riyadh war room say they sit in the same room as CENTCOM and Israeli officers — and that target selection in the war on Yemen is done by CENTCOM and the Israelis. Host Zulfiqar Ali brings their account; Pepe Escobar, from Bangkok after midnight, brings Yemen's next targets and Iran's clock.
Sourcing note: The war-room and MBS reports are our host's own sourcing from Pakistani military personnel and cannot be independently verified. The "Mossad" and "17 people" remarks are Pepe Escobar's information; the host said on air he could not report it.
The Saudi spokesman's Eilat statement is as Escobar describes it; we have not located it. Public record: Riyadh airport was attacked on 6–8 October and operations resumed on 9 October; an Aramco facility south of Riyadh burned on 3 October; Turkey's foreign minister said on 8 October the Mecca pact is "not an offensive agreement"; Pakistan called the New York Times report of PAF strikes "fake and fabricated" on 8 October. An April report said Pakistan had deployed ~10,000 troops to the Yemen border; our host's sources deny it.
Timeline:
00:02:49 The next round: Aramco headquarters and King Khalid Airport, according to Pepe Escobar.
00:28:58 Pakistan's real role: 15 advisers, "not even a team" — per our host's sources.
00:35:39 Same room: what Pakistani personnel in the war room are reporting home.
Pepe Escobar breaks down Trump secretly deploying US Navy SEALs to the region as Iran blitzes the Strait of Hormuz and Yemen's fierce resistance to US-Saudi aggression has led to major strikes on Riyadh's airports. Trump is now seriously considering a US intervention into the Yemen front, even as his administration struggles to stop Iran from shutting down the Strait of Hormuz.
Israeli intelligence officers — including a major general — have been seen inside Saudi Arabia's war consultations in Riyadh, Transition Protocol's Pakistani sources say. Here is why Riyadh needs them, who is refusing to fight for it, and what Yemen does next.
In this week's edition of The Week Ahead, Pepe Escobar — speaking from Bangkok after midnight — joins host Zulfiqar Ali three weeks before the US midterms.
Timeline:
00:02:08 Riyadh's appeal to China
00:03:22 The confirmation
00:20:09 Yemen's plan
00:24:44 Who won't fight
00:27:55 Iran
Pepe Escobar and Larry Johnson with Zulfiqar Ali on Transition Protocol. A senior source in Pakistan's military establishment told the show, in answer to five questions, that no Pakistani aircraft entered Yemeni airspace — "None. Zero." — and that the foreigners inside Saudi Arabia's war are mostly American: 110 American advisors, two Pakistani radar specialists and two Turkish technicians.
CNN has separately reported more than 100 US military advisers supporting the Saudi campaign. On 8 October Pakistan's Information Ministry called a New York Times report of Pakistani jets "fake and fabricated". The source says every Pakistani unit is around Mecca and Medina, under Pakistani command, not Najran.
Escobar says any move toward the border would make Pakistani forces "legitimate targets". Also Saudi Arabia's money, Trump's pause on Iran until after 3 November, and what a senior Iranian source told the host two hours before recording.
The five answers and the 110 / 2 / 2 figures come from that Pakistani military source. The Iranian remarks are a senior Iranian source speaking to the host. Larry Johnson's account of damage at Abqaiq and on the East–West pipeline has not been independently confirmed.
Iran has refused Trump's last counteroffer in full and decided that ships crossing Hormuz will pay in rials only, Transition Protocol's sources say — decisions taken hours before this recording and not yet announced.
Host Zulfiqar Ali and Pepe Escobar, speaking from Bangkok after midnight, on what Tehran just decided, why the last diplomatic channel may be dead four weeks before the US midterms, and why Pakistan's diplomats see the Yemen war as the biggest threat yet to the House of Saud.
Timeline:
00:03:13 The rial rule: nothing other than Iranian currency, cleared through China's CIPS
00:04:34 The refusal: the Qatari-carried counteroffer rejected categorically
00:06:34 The clock: Escobar says the channel is dead; four weeks to 3 November
00:12:15 The Mecca question: an alliance to defend Saudi Arabia, but none for Gaza?
00:19:21 Pakistan's troops near Yemen: defence only, the host's sources say
00:30:01 Brazil's 25 October runoff, after Flávio Bolsonaro's first-round lead
Iran's leaders say they expect a U.S. attack and are ready for it, according to Zulfiqar Ali's contacts in Tehran and Islamabad.
Pepe Escobar puts a "possibility of some sort of adventure" in the next few days at roughly 20–30%, and "nearly 100% certainty" of a U.S. move after the midterms, four weeks away.
In this episode of The Week Ahead, recorded Sunday 4 October 2026, Zulfiqar Ali reports what he says he was told by people making decisions in Tehran and Islamabad: that the civilian and military leadership expect an attack; that Iran says it has stocked food, medicine and housing for at least six months; that Russia, China and Pakistan are helping; and that Iran's targeting is "locked in."
Pepe Escobar, speaking from Thailand, explains the offer he says Iran put on the table through Qatar, what he says Xi Jinping offered Washington and how he expects China to reply, why he says diplomacy is dead for now, and how he reads the odds.
Description:
Pakistan will not fight Saudi Arabia’s war against Ansarallah (the Houthis) in Yemen — that is the answer Transition Protocol received from sources at the highest levels in Islamabad. And, per the host’s sources, Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir told MBS that Saudi Arabia would be spared Iranian strikes only if it kept its territory out of any US attack on Iran.
Pepe Escobar and Zulfiqar Ali on the deadline week: Iran’s 30 September marker, Netanyahu’s unannounced flight to Abu Dhabi to meet MBZ, the off-ramp Escobar says Xi Jinping offered Trump in the Oval Office, and the “November non-surprise” — the war Escobar expects after the US midterms if Washington says no again.
Sourcing note: Pakistan’s decision and the Munir–MBS exchange are reported from Transition Protocol’s sources and have not been independently confirmed; publicly, Saudi Arabia says joint efforts with Pakistan under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement continue. The host describes the agreement as tentative and still being negotiated. Netanyahu’s 27 September visit to Abu Dhabi was confirmed by UAE state media and his office. Forecasts in this episode are the speakers’ analysis
Description:
Larry Johnson welcomes Pepe Escobar and Viktor Bout on the International Unity Club. Bout, back from 12 Russian regions, says voters are focused on the conflict with the collective West on Ukrainian territory, and on the everyday problems he heard from business people, students, and families.
On the Arctic, Johnson names four openings: the northern transport corridor, fisheries, oil and gas, and rare earth minerals. He says U.S. academics could not agree which should come first, and that the United States has only two old diesel icebreakers. Bout says the priority is the Northern Sea Route.
Russia has been building icebreakers and ports from Murmansk and Arkhangelsk, opening regions such as the Yamal gas fields. He argues Siberia and the North are part of Russia, harsh to live in, and that only Russia is in a position to develop them while keeping the languages and way of life of the northern peoples.
Pepe Escobar discusses breaking developments including Iran's role in the US RAF Base attack that targeted US B-1 bombers and the bombshell report that US marines suffered massive casualties in a recent strike plus what it all means for the multipolar world.
Description:
Iran is prepared to take the war beyond the Strait of Hormuz and into the Indian Ocean if nothing moves this week — that is what Pepe Escobar’s contacts and three separate decision-level sources in Tehran are telling Transition Protocol. Here is the way out Washington did not take, the deadlines that start the clock, and who will and will not fight.
In the first edition of THE WEEK AHEAD, Pepe Escobar — speaking from Bangkok at 1 a.m. Monday — joins host Zulfiqar Ali to map the seven days that could decide the Iran war.
— Xi’s off-ramp: according to Escobar, Xi Jinping told Trump face to face to go back to the memorandum both sides signed. Chinese state media reported Xi backed a return to the June 17 Islamabad memorandum.
— The clock: Mohsen Rezaei’s four-to-five-day window runs out Monday 28 September; Wednesday 30 September is a second deadline, as Escobar describes it.
— Hormuz on Iran’s terms: pay the fee, get IRGC Navy clearance — or be attacked.
— Yemen: the Saudi strike on a market in Taiz, and what comes next.
— Pakistan’s answer: will Islamabad join a Saudi–Pakistani–Turkish campaign against Yemen? The host’s sources say no. On Tuesday he brings the answer from a decision-maker.
Iran has reportedly put a conditional offer on the table for reopening the Strait of Hormuz — but the proposal comes with terms, a seven-day sequence, and a September 30 deadline.
In this emergency briefing, Pepe Escobar breaks down the reported New York diplomatic channel, the conditions tied to the Strait of Hormuz, China’s reported message to Donald Trump, the aviation-ban confrontation, the Red Sea front, and the parallel military and diplomatic tracks.
This episode distinguishes on-record analysis, attributed reporting, source-based claims, and forecasts. Claims about an Iranian offer, China’s position, and regional alignment are presented as statements made in the conversation unless independently confirmed in the final edit. Viewer judgment matters: which track is moving faster, diplomacy or escalation, and who blinks first?
Pepe Escobar and host Zulfiqar Ali on Transition Protocol, the night of the UN General Assembly: a source close to Tehran's leadership told the host that Iran has ordered its forces to strike first once an attack is confirmed, and expects that attack in October rather than after the midterms.
They cover what that source says has arrived from China and North Korea, why Pakistan has stepped back as mediator but not away from Iran, three demands Araghchi handed Steve Witkoff in New York, and a diplomatic door China is trying to hold open before Xi Jinping meets Trump.
The channel marks the first-strike order, the weapons deliveries from China and North Korea, and Pakistani intelligence cooperation as single-source and not independently verified. Trump did not use the word "nuclear" at the UN; his words were "annihilate the Islamic Republic" and "drive them into hell."
Description:
From Moscow, Larry Johnson and Pepe Escobar argue that BRICS is splitting from within. Escobar says India and the UAE kept the New Delhi declaration from condemning the war on Iran, even as it denounced secondary sanctions.
He says Narendra Modi accused China in a closed session of weaponizing rare earths, and that Xi Jinping then skipped the gala. BRICS Pay, he adds, is still only an India-Russia trial, and Sergey Lavrov's refusal of a secretariat leaves clashes such as India-China and UAE-Iran unmanaged. Johnson floats a tighter core of Russia, Iran, and China. Escobar traces the group instead to Yevgeny Primakov's 1998 Russia-India-China idea, and Johnson says Moscow has ended India's oil discount.
Description:
Tehran has priced the Strait of Hormuz. The bill went to Washington through Qatar, with Pakistan named as a consultation partner and the terms agreed with Beijing first.
Iran has set out what it wants in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Seven conditions were relayed to the United States through Qatar; three have been published and four have not. Sanctions relief is not among them — and in this episode Pepe Escobar explains why Tehran did not bother asking for something Congress and a Security Council veto make undeliverable.
The part that is not being reported anywhere else: before Xi Jinping’s state visit to Washington on Thursday 24 September, Abbas Araghchi flew to Beijing and told Wang Yi that Iran had reached a plan with Oman to reopen the trade. Transition Protocol’s reporting is that the three points were agreed between the two foreign ministers ahead of that visit. That specific claim is ours and is not independently confirmed; everything around it is sourced and linked below.
And if Washington refuses? On the recording Pepe Escobar says the retaliation will not be two to one or five to one but “20 to 2, or maybe 30 to 2.” That figure is Iran’s stated position as relayed by Escobar — it is not a Transition Protocol forecast. Separately, and on his own sourcing, Zulfiqar Ali puts the figure at 22 to 1. We have left both on the record rather than splitting the difference, because they come from different sources and we are not going to pretend otherwise.
Description:
Iran holds the Strait of Hormuz. Yemen’s forces now hold the Bab al-Mandab. Saudi Arabia is boxed in on both coasts — and Transition Protocol says it knows why Yemen went all-in.
Recorded after midnight in Moscow, Pepe Escobar and Zulfiqar Ali (Mr. Z) break down five interlocking developments: the quiet understanding between Ansarallah and the White House behind Trump’s “the Houthis called us”; CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper’s meeting with MBS in Jeddah; the postponed Iran–Gulf Hormuz talks that Iran blames on Riyadh; the UAE’s surprise BRICS sit-down with President Pezeshkian; and Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi’s talks with Wang Yi in Beijing.
The hosts also say they hold information — which they say was confirmed at senior levels in Tehran and Islamabad — explaining the ferocity of Yemen’s offensive. They explain on air why they are not releasing the details yet.
Also: diesel at the $9.99 pump limit in California, who turned down MBS’s requests for help, Yemen’s next moves on Taiz and Marib, and Pepe Escobar’s scenarios for Saudi Arabia.
Guest statements about sources, intelligence and future events are the speakers’ own reporting and analysis and are labelled as such on screen.
Support independent analysis: subscribe to Transition Protocol on Substack (same name). New: Friday Fire with Pepe Escobar, every Friday.
Description:
Pepe Escobar, past midnight in Moscow, on the week the map flipped. Saudi Arabia's Hormuz-bypass pipeline is shut after drone strikes. Yemen's Ansarallah took the entire west coast and the Bab al-Mandeb island of Mayun. MBS called Trump twice asking for strikes on the Houthis and was refused, as reported by Axios and Reuters. Pakistan says no military response was discussed under the Makkah pact. Monday, Iran meets Gulf states in Muscat on Hormuz — with Bahrain already out.
Also in this episode: BRICS New Delhi's unanimous line on sanctions; Pepe vs. the host on whether Iran can "declare victory"; and a sourced, not independently confirmed report from the host's contacts that Pakistan's Asim Munir is working a back channel between Iran and the Gulf at Iran's unofficial request. Pepe's "20 to 2" doctrine line and his account of UAE participation on Feb 28 are his reading and are not independently verified.
Pepe Escobar, reporting from Seoul, and Zulfiqar Ali on Iran's shift from defense to offense, a reported North Korean underwater-drone delivery, and the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran's leadership has concluded that this war cannot be settled at a negotiating table. Recorded 8 September 2026, they lay out how diplomatic off-ramps brokered by Pakistan collapsed and what that means for the wider Iran war.
Zulfiqar Ali reports, from sources inside Iran's power structures, that North Korea has delivered stealth underwater attack drones to Iran through a corridor involving China and Pakistan, and that the decision to go on the offensive was cleared by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, President Pezeshkian, Speaker Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Araghchi. The channel marks this as source-based reporting, not independently verified.
Escobar assesses a possible American counter-response and what a strategic defeat in West Asia and Ukraine at the same time would mean for US power.
Description:
Iran told Trump "get lost." Sources with direct contact to Islamabad and Tehran tell Transition Protocol that Trump offered Iran a 10-day cessation of hostilities this week — and was refused. Then, through Qatar, the White House asked Iran to allow "performative strikes" with no retaliation. Iran refused again.
Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir has stopped returning Trump's calls after being sent to Tehran twice and reneged on twice. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed despite official claims it is "wide open," CENTCOM has re-stood up a 24/7 battle staff, and Iran's retaliation doctrine is now 2-to-1, 3-to-1, 5-to-1 with a war plan built to run through the US midterms.
Larry Johnson explains why the bond market — not the Pentagon — is forcing Trump to back down: Treasury yields are rising and, in his words, "nobody's buying." Pepe Escobar breaks down the tanker-for-tanker gamble that could detonate global shipping insurance, Ghalibaf's warning that "if we cannot export oil, nobody will," and the SCO development bank being built outside the US dollar at Bishkek and Vladivostok ahead of the BRICS summit in India. Zulfiqar Ali reports Tehran's final position: diplomacy only through the Islamabad MOU — no more negotiations.
Guests: Larry Johnson, former CIA analyst and State Department counter-terrorism official; Pepe Escobar, veteran geopolitical correspondent covering BRICS, SCO and Eurasia from the ground; hosted by Zulfiqar Ali. Inside-source claims in this episode are attributed and identified on screen as developing; nothing unverified is presented as settled fact. Transition Protocol is a serious, source-driven geopolitical and economic analysis channel — evidence-based reporting on global power shifts and their financial consequences. Subscribe and join us on Substack for twice-weekly briefings
Description:
Trump called Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir repeatedly — "find me an off-ramp" — according to a source close to Munir cited by Zulfiqar Ali.
Munir went to Tehran and, Zulfiqar reports, persuaded a reluctant Iran to offer Washington a way out; Trump rejected it because he could not present it as a victory.
Days later the Strait of Hormuz tanker incident restarted the bombing. The call-level details are Zulfiqar's sourced reporting and have not been independently verified; the 14-point Islamabad MOU is public (link below).
Pepe Escobar then lays out what Washington won't: Iran's actual terms (return to the MOU or Hormuz stays shut), the timeline Tehran is reported to be planning for, the endurance contest over interceptors and resupply, and why the global economy cannot sustain a forever war at the world's most important chokepoint.
Then the story the West ignored this week: the SCO summit in Bishkek. The declaration on the attack on Iran and "indivisible security"; the proposed SCO energy consortium and development bank outside the dollar system;
Mongolia and Afghanistan moving toward membership; Pakistan's 2027 chairmanship; and the Saudi–Pakistan–Turkey Mecca Defence Agreement moving from paper to institution. What is confirmed, what is developing, and what it means for oil, the dollar and the next phase of the war.
Pepe Escobar is a veteran geopolitical analyst who has covered the SCO since its 2001 founding. Zulfiqar Ali's reporting draws on sources inside Pakistan's military and diplomatic leadership. Transition Protocol is an independent, source-driven channel; claims from insiders are labelled as such on screen. Subscribe and turn on notifications — tomorrow: Larry Johnson on Vladivostok and the Eastern Economic Forum.
Description:
Geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar discusses the US-Israeli war on Iran resuming after reports of a bounty on Netanyahu and desperate US attacks on Larak island that were met with massive Iranian response.
Description:
IRAN HAS SIGNALLED IT MAY OPEN THE NUCLEAR FILE — and the Strait of Hormuz has 72 hours to prove whether the deal is real.
Pepe Escobar and Zulfiqar Ali break down the Iran–US architecture now being assembled through Pakistani mediation: the closed Strait of Hormuz, the war-risk insurance premiums that will move before any government speaks, the six billion dollars sitting in Qatari banks, and the three-capital joint statement that sources say could land within 48 hours. Sources close to the talks indicate Iranian negotiators may show flexibility on the nuclear dossier at a later stage — a reversal from the position held a day earlier.
Also in this episode: why Iran has shut Omani territorial waters to transiting ships and taken control of the whole strait; why Pakistan has refused to enforce US secondary sanctions on Iran — described here as a first in its history — alongside coordinated foreign-ministry pushback from Russia and China; the role of former Pakistani army chief Raheel Sharif in carrying the framework to Riyadh and onward to Washington; the 40 million Pakistani Shias offered to Tehran as a guarantee of good faith; and the 60-to-90-day framework of indirect talks and cessation of hostilities now under discussion, with Pakistan as mediator and Qatar as the financial channel. Islamabad and Switzerland are both being pushed as the signing venue.
Pepe Escobar is a veteran geopolitical correspondent who has covered Eurasian politics and energy for decades; Zulfiqar Ali reports from direct contacts across the Pakistani and Iranian political and military leadership. Claims sourced to those contacts are marked DEVELOPING on screen and are not independently verified. Transition Protocol is a source-driven geopolitics channel covering de-dollarization, BRICS, the multipolar order and the financial consequences of global power shifts. Subscribe for the follow-up the moment the joint statement lands.
Description:
A source described by Zulfiqar Ali as the person drafting a Pakistani announcement says Iran and the United States have agreed on a contemporaneous first step: a controlled reopening of the Strait of Hormuz alongside U.S. sanctions and naval-blockade relief.
That claim is not yet publicly corroborated. What is verified is that Pakistan’s mediation channel is active, Iran and Oman are working on a temporary maritime corridor, Hormuz remains severely disrupted, and Washington has just intensified sanctions pressure.
In this urgent Transition Protocol conversation, Pepe Escobar and Larry C. Johnson stress-test the reported Trump–Iran off-ramp: who moves first, what “simultaneous” action would actually mean, whether a 60–90 day indirect process exists, how an oil and fuel shock changes Washington’s choices, and why Trump—or a third-party spoiler—could still collapse the window. The central question is not whether officials sound hopeful. It is whether reciprocal action becomes observable.
Zulfiqar Ali brings source-based reporting from Pakistani and Iranian contacts; Pepe Escobar and former CIA analyst Larry C. Johnson provide geopolitical and security analysis. Transition Protocol is a source-driven geopolitical and economic analysis channel focused on evidence, power shifts, and real-world consequences. Source claims in this episode are identified as developing or uncorroborated where appropriate.
Description:
Iran has told Washington that if the United States succeeds in economically suffocating it, not a drop of oil will leave the Gulf — not from Saudi Arabia, not the UAE, not Qatar, not anywhere.
That message was carried out of Tehran this week by Field Marshal Asim Munir and Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, and delivered to the acting US ambassador in Islamabad within hours of their return.
Pepe Escobar and Zulfiqar Ali break down the full sequence — the Trump phone call that started it, the six-point mechanism now on the table, the Strait of Hormuz deal-breaker, and the message from Beijing that landed in the room while the talks were still running.
Also in this episode — what Iran is demanding before it returns to the table (frozen assets, sanctions relief, an end to the naval blockade); why the new US Treasury sanctions package is functionally aimed at China; the single American decision that would collapse the entire process overnight; Iran's four-step escalation ladder and the NPT exit that sits on the first rung; and why both analysts now describe this as the last chance saloon. Chapter markers below.
Pepe Escobar is a globally recognised geopolitical correspondent covering Eurasia, BRICS and the multipolar transition. Zulfiqar Ali reports from direct channels in Islamabad and Tehran. Transition Protocol is a source-driven geopolitical and economic analysis channel focused on evidence-based reporting and high-signal breakdowns of global power shifts and their financial consequences. Some claims in this episode are single-source and are identified on screen as such.
Pepe Escobar and Zulfiqar Ali on Scott Bessent's maximum-pressure campaign and a reported Pakistani invitation for Iran to join the Mecca Pact.
Transition Protocol says sources in the office of Iran's Supreme Leader told them Speaker Ghalibaf was discussing the invitation hours before Field Marshal Asim Munir landed in Tehran. The channel marks the claims as source-based and not independently confirmed.
Pepe Escobar and Zulfiqar Ali on Transition Protocol on unaccounted Iranian uranium, Pakistan's Iran corridors, and Trump's maximum-pressure campaign.
440.9 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium are unaccounted for, and according to sources inside the Pakistani command the only remaining channel with visibility into where it went runs through a mediator Donald Trump has discarded. Escobar and Ali report Pakistan will not close the six overland corridors keeping Iran supplied, will not close Gwadar, and does not treat Scott Bessent's sanctions threats as reason to change course.
They also report Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar has met Wang Yi and secured a Chinese commitment to backstop Pakistan if it walks away from the $10 billion IMF programme. Iran's internal calculation, they say, is that it can absorb maximum pressure until November; Escobar assesses Tehran may go on the offensive within weeks if provoked again.
Description:
Trump's White House tried to buy off Iran's Revolutionary Guard with a multi-billion-dollar offer modeled on the Venezuela playbook — and got refused twice, first by IRGC commander Vahidi, who called it treason, and then by Pakistan's Army Chief Asim Munir, who told Trump directly that Islamabad would not help destabilize Tehran's leadership.
In this episode, Zulfiqar Ali, Pepe Escobar, and Larry Johnson break down the failed bribery attempt, China's directive to Pakistan to prioritize its Iran relationship, and why the collapse of the US–Iran memorandum of understanding is now pushing Washington toward open discussion of a nuclear strike on Iran.
The panel also covers the global diesel and aviation-fuel shortage triggered by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the UAE's public cutoff of trade with Iran days after reportedly sending Tehran billions in cash and gold, and why Oman and Qatar are now openly rejecting US pressure over who controls the strait.
This episode is built on direct reporting from sources inside Tehran and Islamabad and lands the same week the US–Iran MOU formally expired (August 17–18, 2026), with Iran declaring a shift to a fully offensive posture on Hormuz.
Zulfiqar Ali reports with direct access to decision-making circles in Islamabad and Tehran; Pepe Escobar is a veteran geopolitical analyst covering Eurasia and the multipolar order from the ground; Larry Johnson is a former US intelligence and State Department official providing military and strategic analysis. Transition Protocol is a serious, source-driven geopolitical and economic analysis channel focused on evidence-based reporting and high-signal breakdowns of global power shifts and their financial consequences.
Description:
The U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding has expired — and this episode reveals exactly why. Pepe Escobar and Zulfiqar Ali break down two secret back-channel plays Washington ran to bypass Pakistan and reach Iran’s military command directly, why IRGC leadership refused both times, and what Iran’s newly appointed #2 official signaled by shifting toward "offense."
The conversation goes deep on nuclear-normalization talk reportedly circulating in Washington, Iran’s retaliation posture, Pakistan’s damaged mediator role, and the upcoming BRICS Summit in New Delhi where Iran, Russia, and China’s presidents are expected to meet.
Pepe Escobar is a globally recognized, veteran geopolitical journalist with decades of on-the-ground reporting across Eurasia; Zulfiqar Ali hosts Transition Protocol with direct sourcing inside regional decision-making circles.
This is Transition Protocol — independent, source-driven analysis of the shift away from a unipolar world order. Subscribe for continuing coverage of the Iran-U.S. standoff, and join our Substack for twice-weekly deep intelligence briefings
Iran has reportedly given Washington a matter of days — not weeks — to change course on the Strait of Hormuz, according to Pakistani and Iranian mediation sources detailed in this Transition Protocol special. I
n this breaking-news episode, Zulfiqar Ali and Pepe Escobar break down MBS's second phone call blocking a revamped US strike on Iran, the UAE's stunning gold-and-cash outreach to Tehran, Pakistan and China's central role as mediators, and Iran's readiness — including a reported 2,000-boat swarm fleet — to defend the Strait of Hormuz if diplomacy fails.
Pepe Escobar is a veteran geopolitical analyst and journalist covering Eurasia, BRICS, and multipolar world affairs for over two decades; Zulfiqar Ali hosts Transition Protocol, a source-driven geopolitical and economic analysis show reaching audiences in fourteen languages. This is analysis and source-based reporting — claims marked DEVELOPING or UNVERIFIED are clearly flagged throughout.
Description:
Strait of Hormuz irrelevant in two years? Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said so on Aug. 8, claiming pipelines will replace most Gulf oil flow — but existing bypass capacity covers less than a quarter of what actually crosses Hormuz.
The same week, President Trump claimed “total control” of the Strait, and Iran's newly confirmed Supreme National Security Council chief, Mohsen Rezaei, said it stays shut until the US ends the war and returns frozen assets. Pepe Escobar, Larry Johnson, and Zulfiqar Ali break down all three claims against the actual numbers, plus the new Mecca Joint Defence Agreement and a US Strategic Petroleum Reserve that just hit its lowest level since 1983.
Beyond the headlines: what a stalled Hormuz reopening means for global diesel and jet fuel supply, why the US emergency oil reserve matters for every driver and airline, and what Pakistan's active back-channel diplomacy with Tehran could mean for the weeks ahead.
Verification note: claims in this episode are labeled Confirmed, Developing, or Assessment/Unverified throughout. Source-based intelligence is clearly flagged and should be weighed accordingly — we'd rather be right than first.
Description:
On Transition Protocol, Pepe Escobar walks through a tightly packed Iran–Pakistan–Eurasia brief: a reported secret six-hour meeting between Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian, and what a “pivot” in Tehran’s internal and regional posture could signal.
Escobar also flags Pakistan’s Mecca-linked diplomacy as a potential shock to wider Eurasian alignments—how religious, security, and trade vectors can move together when great-power pressure is high.
The conversation ties these moves to the broader multipolar map: Iranian decision-making under stress, Islamabad’s balancing act, and why opaque elite meetings matter more than the daily headline cycle.
Description:
Strait of Hormuz news today: Washington says a deal to reopen the strait could come within 48 hours — but the Islamabad Memorandum's free-passage clause expires on 16 August, and the arrangement replacing it is being negotiated in Muscat. Pepe Escobar and Zulfiqar Ali on the US–Iran MOU deadline, the Iran–Oman Hormuz agreement, and who is actually writing the terms.
What Article 5 of the memorandum actually says and why the sixty-day free-passage window matters more than the headline. The fee structure reportedly under negotiation between Tehran and Muscat, and how it collides with the freedom-of-movement framing given to markets this morning.
Why crude moved today. The Pakistan channel: Ishaq Dar's invitation to Foreign Minister Araghchi, and the reported parliamentary visit stacked against Independence Day on 14 August and the expiry of the clock on 16 August. The Saudi reversal, the weekend phone call, and the strike that did not happen.
Analysis by Pepe Escobar, geopolitical analyst and correspondent, and Zulfiqar Ali, Transition Protocol. This episode distinguishes throughout between publicly confirmed developments and single-source reporting from our own channels; both are labelled as such on screen.
