Carl Zha and Warwick Powell on whether Washington is losing control across Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, Ukraine, and China.
Powell argues fuel and diesel prices show a gap between claims that Hormuz flows are back to normal and what oil markets, depleted strategic reserves, and continued attacks indicate.
The talk then covers an overstretched U.S. military, China's choice to avoid direct confrontation while tightening energy security and ties with the Global South, Beijing's limits on refined petroleum exports, and Europe copying Washington's trade stance toward China.
Carl Zha and Warwick Powell on Ukraine running out of options, Russian advances in Donbass, and why Moscow may reject a Kushner-Witkoff settlement that skips Russia's security demands.
Powell argues Russia has absorbed Ukrainian drone attacks while manpower shortages, thinning air defenses, and NATO weapons depletion pile up on Kiev. If the war runs into winter, the shock hits energy markets, European politics, and the U.S. midterms.
Timeline:
00:00:00 Trump sends Kushner & Witkoff to Russia
00:00:56 The Western narrative vs. battlefield reality
00:02:19 Why Russia has weathered the economic pressure
00:03:18 Ukraine's growing manpower crisis
00:04:16 Russia's attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure
00:05:15 Why Russia may reject a peace deal
00:06:10 Moscow's long-term security demands
00:07:44 Ukraine as an extension of the NATO military system
00:08:41 NATO's weapons and industrial depletion
00:09:11 Russia's growing missile and drone production
00:09:41 Energy markets and the economic consequences
00:10:11 Ukraine, Europe and the U.S. midterm elections
00:10:39 Political pressure building inside Europe
00:11:34 Is the Western order unraveling?
00:12:02 A historic turning point
Description:
The world is entering a period of extraordinary geopolitical and economic upheaval.
In this episode of the Silk and Steel Podcast, Carl Zha speaks with Australian geopolitical and China expert Dr. Warwick Powell about the escalating conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, soaring energy prices, Iran's emerging regional strategy, the Ukraine war, China's economic resilience, and the growing crisis inside the Western geopolitical system.
The discussion goes far beyond the immediate Iran conflict. Powell argues that the real story is the emergence of a new regional and global security architecture—one increasingly shaped by Iran, China, Russia and other countries outside the traditional Western-led system. Topics discussed:
00:00 — The Hormuz Crisis Escalates
The Strait of Hormuz, Iranian retaliation and the growing threat to global energy markets.
04:00 — Who Really Controls the Strait of Hormuz?
Why oil flows and shipping movements may tell a very different story from official Western narratives.
05:00 — Iran’s Bigger Objective: A New Regional Security Architecture
Iran's vision for a regional security system created and managed by the countries of the region rather than dominated by Washington.
08:00 — Oil Prices Begin to Expose Reality
Why rising crude and diesel prices could eventually overwhelm attempts to manage market expectations through political messaging.
10:00 — The Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Growing Importance
China, Russia, Iran, India, Pakistan and other countries are expanding cooperation across security, energy, transportation, finance and technology.
15:00 — Iran, China & Russia: A New Economic and Security Network?
How cooperation within the SCO could help Iran withstand American sanctions and develop alternative financial and infrastructure systems.
18:00 — Why the Ukraine War Is Reaching a Critical Stage
Powell examines Russia's strategy of attrition, Ukraine's declining military capacity and the pressure building on NATO.
23:00 — Washington’s Ukraine Problem
Why American attempts to negotiate an end to the conflict may not succeed if Russia believes its fundamental security objectives remain unmet.
27:00 — The Coming Economic Shock
How the Iran conflict, energy prices and the Ukraine war could converge into a major pressure point for the transatlantic economy.
30:00 — Why China Is Surprisingly Well Prepared
China's investments in electrification, renewable energy, batteries, EVs and alternative energy systems are becoming increasingly important as global energy security deteriorates.
34:00 — China’s Global South Strategy
Chinese exports of EVs, solar panels, batteries, machinery, semiconductors and other technologies are helping countries in the Global South accelerate industrial development.
38:00 — China Is Becoming the Swing Player in Global Oil Markets
Why Chinese refineries can increasingly influence the direction of global crude prices.
41:00 — Why Has Trump Doubled Down on China?
If tariffs and economic pressure aren't achieving their stated goals, why does Washington continue pursuing the same strategy?
44:00 — The Washington “Double Down” Mentality
Powell explains the political and institutional interests that make changing America's China policy extremely difficult.
48:00 — America’s Displacement Anxiety
Why Washington's growing fear of China's rise could produce increasingly dangerous policies.
51:00 — Could the U.S. Target China’s Technology Infrastructure?
The discussion turns to CIA operations, information warfare, sabotage and the increasingly dangerous possibilities of gray-zone conflict.
55:00 — The SCO and the Rise of Multipolarity
Why more countries may look toward organizations such as the SCO as they become concerned about sanctions and unilateral American power.
58:00 — The Unraveling of the Old World Order
Powell argues that the world may be witnessing the breakdown of a 70–80 year economic and military architecture.
Description:
In this episode of Silk and Steel, Carl Zha speaks with Dr. Warwick Powell about Trump's renewed campaign of maximum economic pressure against Iran, the threat of secondary sanctions against countries doing business with Tehran, and why China may be the critical factor that determines whether the strategy succeeds or fails.
Powell argues that decades of sanctions and the latest military campaign have failed to achieve Washington's stated objectives. Now, with the US facing economic and political pressures at home, the Trump administration may be trying to create the appearance of action while avoiding an escalation that could produce even greater economic pain.
The discussion goes far beyond sanctions.
China's growing economic relationship with Iran, Russia's position, the Strait of Hormuz, and the emergence of new regional partnerships may be pointing toward something much larger: the beginnings of a post-US Persian Gulf security and economic architecture.
The conversation examines whether Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Iran could become part of a new regional configuration — and what role China and Russia could play as economic and strategic backstops.
The episode also explores the deeper problem facing Washington: what happens when a declining hegemon tries to prevent the emergence of a new international order?
And with a potential Xi Jinping–Trump summit approaching and the US midterm elections looming, Powell explains why escalating rhetoric against China may be driven as much by American domestic politics as by foreign policy.
Topics Covered
Trump's new “economic D-Day” against Iran
Why decades of sanctions have failed to force regime change
The limits of US secondary sanctions
Why China is central to Iran's economy
China's response to US sanctions
Russia's potential role
The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz
The changing Persian Gulf security architecture
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Iran
China's rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia
China's expanding role across Eurasia
The emergence of a possible post-US regional order
Why Washington may be accelerating the changes it wants to stop
American exceptionalism and the struggle to accept a multipolar world
The US military-industrial complex
Trump, Xi and the next phase of US-China relations
US sanctions and tariffs ahead of the midterm elections
America's increasingly fragile economic picture
The AI investment boom and the US economy
Description:
The U.S. continues its pivot AWAY from Asia, as the last U.S. aircraft carrier has left the Pacific, on its way to the Middle East, and as President Trump announced plans to “substantially reduce” U.S. involvement in joint military exercises with South Korea.
Carl Zha, a geopolitical analyst and Host of the Silk & Steel Podcast, noted that the U.S. war on Iran has exposed the myth that the U.S. would protect its vassal states around the world, and it has also reminded the world why China has reshaped its energy strategy with a focus on renewable, electric vehicles, building up its strategic petroleum reserves, etc.
China was prepared for this day to come, and it will survive this war. We can’t say the same for the U.S.
Professor John Mearsheimer argues that the lessons of the Gulf crisis will not necessarily translate to East Asia because countries such as Japan and South Korea still see the United States as their indispensable security partner.
But Dr. Warwick Powell argues that the reality may be more complicated.
If Iran can strike U.S. bases and expose weaknesses in America's ability to protect its regional military infrastructure, America's allies may eventually begin preparing for a future in which Washington cannot provide the same level of security it once did.
Japan is already undergoing a major military transformation. But what is driving it?
Is the United States losing its ability to dominate Asia?
In this episode of the Silk and Steel Podcast, Carl Zha is joined by Australian economist and geopolitical analyst Dr. Warwick Powell for a wide-ranging discussion about the changing balance of power from the Persian Gulf to East Asia.
The conversation begins with the continuing war involving Iran and the strategic consequences of the Strait of Hormuz. Dr. Powell argues that the conflict could have consequences far beyond the battlefield, particularly through disruptions to oil, diesel and other petroleum-derived products.
The discussion then turns to a much bigger question: what happens when America’s allies begin preparing for a world in which the U.S. can no longer guarantee their security?
Carl Zha sits down with geopolitical analyst Einar Tangen to examine the rapidly escalating confrontation between the United States, Israel, and Iran—and why the conflict may have entered a phase that no country can fully control.
Using the famous "Three-Body Problem" as a framework, Einar argues that Washington, Tehran, and Tel Aviv are locked in a geopolitical system where every move creates new and unpredictable consequences.
The discussion explores:
Why recent diplomacy with Iran was unlikely to succeed The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz How energy, shipping, and global supply chains could be disrupted Why military escalation may leave every side worse off Trump's political calculations and the pressure of domestic politics What prolonged instability means for the future of U.S.-China competition
In this wide-ranging conversation, Dr. Warwick Powell joins Carl Zha to explain why America's economic crisis is rooted in its own financial system—not in Beijing.
They discuss:
- Why tariffs haven't revived American industry
- The Strait of Hormuz crisis and its impact on the global economy
- Trump's economic strategy and the limits of trade wars
- Shareholder capitalism versus productive industry
- Why Wall Street and Main Street have fundamentally different interests
- China's industrial strategy and why it continues to outperform Western economies
- Why blaming China won't solve America's structural problems
Dr. Powell argues that the United States must first make peace with itself before it can find peace with the rest of the world.
Whether you agree or disagree, this conversation offers a thought-provoking perspective on the changing global economic order.
Description:
China's latest missile test over the South Pacific sparked alarm across Australia, New Zealand and Washington—but was the launch really about them?
In this episode Carl Zha speaks with Dr. Warwick Powell about the strategic meaning behind China's latest ICBM demonstration and why the message was aimed squarely at American military planners.
They discuss:
- Why China's second-strike capability changes strategic calculations
- Why Australia and New Zealand reacted differently to U.S. missile tests
- The future of Taiwan and America's alliances in Asia
- China's rapidly advancing space launch technology
- Reusable Long March boosters and the race with SpaceX
- China's expanding satellite capabilities and military implications
- Why Beijing sees satellites and submarines as the remaining capability gaps
- How new Chinese scientific breakthroughs could reshape the Global South
- The growing reality of a multipolar world
Dr. Warwick Powell argues that the world is entering a new strategic era—one in which assumptions that have dominated international politics for decades are rapidly becoming obsolete.
Description:
Panic has overtaken the neocons as Trump's new World War 3 strategy is being seen by many observers as a bow of surrender to Russia & China. In this special Sunday show, a special guest joins Danny Haiphong to break down this shocking development and what it truly means as the US empire seeks to arrest its rapid collapse.
Description:
The US is being plunged into internal chaos as US president Trump attacks Marjorie Taylor Greene and major "MAGA" figures split from the administration over its "Israel-first" agenda. Meanwhile, Trump's administration is reacting to the US's collapse from within like this, and its global implications are massive. Carl Zha, KJ Noh and Warwick Powell break down what it all means for the changing world order.
Description:
In this powerful segment, host KJ Noh of @BreakThroughNews Carl Zha and Dr. Warwick Powell dissect the core structural advantages China holds over the United States in the age of AI. We move beyond the headlines to explain why China's engineering-driven, build-focused model is outpacing America's financialized, "PowerPoint" economy. From energy infrastructure and manufacturing to global alliances, this is a reality check on the shifting balance of global power.
In this episode, we discuss: - Why the movie Idiocracy feels like a documentary of America's trajectory. - The fundamental divide: China's engineer-led, building-focused system vs. America's lawyer-led, financialized system. - How China's massive renewable energy build-out is the secret weapon powering its AI revolution. - The self-defeating nature of US sanctions, which are forcing China and the Global South to decouple from American tech. - The "geopolitics of thermodynamics": Why energy efficiency is the ultimate measure of a nation's future success. - Why countries like Malaysia are openly choosing China's tech stack, despite US pressure.
Timeline:
0:00 - The "Idiocracy" Problem: US vs. Chinese Leadership
1:20 - AI in Practice: China Builds, America Talks
3:00 - The Systemic Crisis of the US Elite
4:15 - Deindustrialization vs. Financialization
5:20 - What Does "Winning" Against China Even Mean for the US?
6:45 - The End of the IOU Economy: Global South Rejects US Financialization
8:10 - The "Geopolitics of Thermodynamics" & Energy Efficiency
10:00 - China's Energy Boom vs. America's Stagnation
11:30 - How US Sanctions are Forcing the World to Choose China's Tech
14:00 - The Inevitable Choice: Global South is Siding with China
15:15 - Where to Find the Guests
Description:
Carl Zha has an incredible conversation with legendary journalist Pepe Escobar, fresh off the road from a groundbreaking trip across China's Xinjiang region. We traveled the modern Silk Road, from the high-tech capital of Urumqi to the ancient oasis of Kashgar, and what we witnessed completely shatters the Western media narrative.
In this episode, Pepe contrasts his travels in Xinjiang from 25 years ago with the reality on the ground today. We discuss the mind-boggling modernization, the seamless integration of ethnic groups, the truth behind the "redevelopment" of Kashgar's old city, and the shocking scale of the Belt and Road Initiative's infrastructure. This is a firsthand, on-the-ground account you won't get anywhere else.
TIMESTAMPS: Key Topics Discussed
(00:00) - Introduction to Pepe Escobar, the "OG" Foreign Correspondent
(01:45) - Pepe's Career: From Asia Times to Being Smeared as a "CCP Agent"
(06:50) - The Mission: Documenting the New Silk Road in Xinjiang
(08:45) - First Impressions: The "Enormous Shock" of Modern Xinjiang
(11:30) - The Karakoram Highway & China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
(13:45) - Crossing the Taklamakan Desert: A Modern Engineering Marvel
(16:10) - The Reality of Kashgar: From Segregated City to Integrated Hub
(19:30) - An Emotional Moment: Showing Locals Footage of Their City from 1998
(22:45) - People-to-People Exchange: Han Chinese, Uyghurs, and Others Living & Working Together
(25:15) - The Tourism Boom: Driven Domestically, Missing Westerners Due to "Demonization"
(29:00) - On the Ground Security: Facial Recognition, Polite Police, and the Real Story
(33:45) - The Upcoming Documentary: A "Multipolar" BRICS Production
(37:20) - Plans for Part 2: Focusing on Northern Xinjiang and Central Asian Borders
(41:50) - Xinjiang as a High-Tech & Green Energy Hub
(47:10) - The Power of Long-Term Planning: 5-Year Plans vs. Western Short-Termism
(52:30) - The "Asian Century" is Already Here: The Vibe of Development vs. Western Decline
(58:00) - China's Offer to the Global South vs. The Washington Consensus
(01:01:30) - How to Follow Pepe Escobar's Work
Description:
America is more divided than ever. Political polarisation, cultural wars, and rising violence are tearing the nation apart. Is there a way back?
Join Alex Reporterfy, Cyrus Janssen, and Carl Zha for a critical live stream discussion. We'll explore the uncomfortable questions: What can a divided America learn from China's model of social cohesion and security? How has China created a society where people feel safe, and what lessons can be applied to curb the violence and insecurity plaguing American life?
The United States is at a critical juncture. Deep societal divisions, a toxic political climate, and a pervasive sense of insecurity have left many Americans questioning the future. From rampant crime in major cities to the constant threat of violence, the social fabric appears to be unraveling.
Meanwhile, China has lifted hundreds of millions from poverty and fostered a society with a remarkable degree of public safety. While the two systems are vastly different, are there principles and strategies America can learn from?
This Sunday, join commentators Alex Reporterfy, Cyrus Janssen, and Carl Zha for an in-depth and provocative discussion. We will tackle the tough issues head-on:
- Political Stability vs. Division: How does China's long-term planning contrast with America's short-term political cycles?
- Culture of Safety: What societal and policy decisions have led to China's low rates of violent crime?
- Social Cohesion: Can a collectivist mindset offer lessons for an individualistic American culture that feels increasingly isolated?
This live stream will challenge your perspectives and offer a unique look at how America might begin to heal its deepest wounds by looking to an unlikely source for inspiration.
Description:
In this episode of India & Global Left, we sit down with Carl Zha to unpack why the West often misreads the changes taking place in Asia. From China’s Victory Day celebrations to the SCO Summit, we explore how these events reflect broader shifts in global politics.
Description:
China just dropped a BRICS bombshell on Trump at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit and the consequences for the US dollar are devastating. Analysts Carl Zha, Dr. Warwick Powell, and Dr. Da Wei (coming from Beijing) break down the explosion of the new multipolar world order in recent days and what it means for the waning hegemony of the US and the dollar.
