Iran has reportedly given Washington a matter of days — not weeks — to change course on the Strait of Hormuz, according to Pakistani and Iranian mediation sources detailed in this Transition Protocol special. I
n this breaking-news episode, Zulfiqar Ali and Pepe Escobar break down MBS's second phone call blocking a revamped US strike on Iran, the UAE's stunning gold-and-cash outreach to Tehran, Pakistan and China's central role as mediators, and Iran's readiness — including a reported 2,000-boat swarm fleet — to defend the Strait of Hormuz if diplomacy fails.
Pepe Escobar is a veteran geopolitical analyst and journalist covering Eurasia, BRICS, and multipolar world affairs for over two decades; Zulfiqar Ali hosts Transition Protocol, a source-driven geopolitical and economic analysis show reaching audiences in fourteen languages. This is analysis and source-based reporting — claims marked DEVELOPING or UNVERIFIED are clearly flagged throughout.
Description:
Strait of Hormuz irrelevant in two years? Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said so on Aug. 8, claiming pipelines will replace most Gulf oil flow — but existing bypass capacity covers less than a quarter of what actually crosses Hormuz.
The same week, President Trump claimed “total control” of the Strait, and Iran's newly confirmed Supreme National Security Council chief, Mohsen Rezaei, said it stays shut until the US ends the war and returns frozen assets. Pepe Escobar, Larry Johnson, and Zulfiqar Ali break down all three claims against the actual numbers, plus the new Mecca Joint Defence Agreement and a US Strategic Petroleum Reserve that just hit its lowest level since 1983.
Beyond the headlines: what a stalled Hormuz reopening means for global diesel and jet fuel supply, why the US emergency oil reserve matters for every driver and airline, and what Pakistan's active back-channel diplomacy with Tehran could mean for the weeks ahead.
Verification note: claims in this episode are labeled Confirmed, Developing, or Assessment/Unverified throughout. Source-based intelligence is clearly flagged and should be weighed accordingly — we'd rather be right than first.
Is the United States losing its ability to dominate Asia?
In this episode of the Silk and Steel Podcast, Carl Zha is joined by Australian economist and geopolitical analyst Dr. Warwick Powell for a wide-ranging discussion about the changing balance of power from the Persian Gulf to East Asia.
The conversation begins with the continuing war involving Iran and the strategic consequences of the Strait of Hormuz. Dr. Powell argues that the conflict could have consequences far beyond the battlefield, particularly through disruptions to oil, diesel and other petroleum-derived products.
The discussion then turns to a much bigger question: what happens when America’s allies begin preparing for a world in which the U.S. can no longer guarantee their security?
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On Dialogue Works, Larry Johnson digs into a reported US push to massively expand THAAD and PAC-3 interceptor stocks—what a roughly tenfold ammo surge says about expected threat volume, production bottlenecks, and how thin Western air-defense magazines already are.
He pairs that industrial signal with battlefield news from the Arabian Peninsula: Yemeni rockets striking Saudi command infrastructure, and what that implies for Riyadh’s security perimeter and for any coalition still treating missile defense as a clean technological fix.
Johnson’s frame is practical rather than theatrical: interceptor economics, salvo math, and the gap between stockpiles on paper and sustained high-intensity conflict. Escalation risk sits in the logistics, not only in the headlines.
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Nima Alkhorshid of Dialogue Works speaks with Prof. Seyed Mohammad Marandi about a sharp drop in oil shipments and pressure on Gulf states via Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab.
The discussion covers how chokepoint disruption hits energy markets and regional politics, and what that means for US and Gulf strategy in the wider Middle East conflict.
A concise geopolitics update on oil logistics, Hormuz leverage, and the squeeze on Gulf economies.
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Danny Haiphong is joined by Patrick Henningsen of 21st Century Wire to discuss whether the Iran war is over. Reports suggest Trump may walk away from the conflict without a nuclear deal if Iran agrees to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has laid out firm demands including ending US troop presence, stopping wars of aggression against its allies, and receiving compensation for damages. Meanwhile, Yemen continues escalating strikes against Saudi proxy forces with drone swarms and missiles.
Henningsen analyzes the US military's weakened position in the region, the failure of diplomatic efforts, and how Iran is taking advantage of political vulnerabilities in both Washington and Jerusalem.
Description:
The Middle East is heating up on several fronts at once: Iranian pressure in the Strait of Hormuz, Yemen’s Ansar Allah strikes on Saudi-linked targets, contested US military-loss figures, and a still-fragmented Syria.
The stream also covers oil-market messaging, satellite imagery of damaged sites, and how Western powers helped create many of the armed groups now treated as threats.
Watch for signs of further escalation — including US refueling aircraft in Israel and renewed resistance activity in southern Syria and Lebanon.
Iran replaced the secretary of its Supreme National Security Council last night — by decree of a Supreme Leader the world has not laid eyes on since the strike that killed his father in February. Every newsroom carried the decree. None of them could tell you who signed it.
Transition Protocol has been told by a source close to him that Mojtaba Khamenei has largely recovered, that the change at the top of Iran's security apparatus was his own decision, and that Iran's answer to Washington is being carried to Islamabad this week. We report that as what it is: single-source and unconfirmed. We are telling you who told us and what they are in a position to know, and you can weigh it.
In this briefing, Larry Johnson and Zulfiqar Ali cover why Western analysts are misreading the elevation of Mohsen Rezaei as the arrival of a hardliner; what Iran's updated ten points now demand, including four names that were not in the April version; why six strikes on shipping in eight days have drawn no American retaliation; what the emerging Oman arrangement means for transit permission, tolls and the currency they are paid in; why Saudi Arabia cannot win the exchange it is now in with Yemen; and why Japan's refineries — not the barrel count — are the hidden mechanism behind the global diesel and jet-fuel shortage.
Analysis by Larry Johnson, former CIA analyst and former Deputy Director of the US State Department's Office of Counterterrorism, with Zulfiqar Ali. Hosted by Transition Protocol.
Timeline: 00:00:00 Who is actually negotiating over Hormuz 00:00:57 Iran's account contradicts US claims 00:01:54 History of failed talks and the memorandum 00:02:55 Iran and Oman's single channel plan 00:03:53 Key point: a deal doesn't mean reopening 00:05:16 US and Gulf states oppose the agreement 00:06:40 Why would Iran give up its leverage 00:07:51 Does the US blockade stay in place 00:09:12 Toll or fund, who really controls it 00:11:13 Hardliner faction in Iran wants to resume war 00:14:35 The long war strategy explained 00:17:51 Iran's economic pressure and best path forward 00:21:48 Why closing Hormuz is a long term trap 00:24:07 Lessons from the JCPOA on trusting the US 00:27:37 Comparing Iran's choices to Assad's Syria
