Netanyahu says Iran's leaders must go. Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson explains Iran's answer: a "dead man's switch" that lets 31 regional commanders fire at pre-selected targets on their own — and why Russian planes, he says, are flying diplomats out.
Timeline:
00:04:21 Russian arms in, diplomats out? What Johnson says the Russian flights signal — and what our host's Tehran sources say landed after Lavrov left (10:15).
00:05:09 The dead man's switch: "In the event of a decapitation strike… The 31 regional commanders of the IRGC have been authorized unilaterally to initiate strikes on their own."
00:11:44 The window: "as early tonight… tomorrow… if it does not happen by Sunday… highly unlikely."
00:24:43 The aim: Netanyahu says Trump "has signed off" on removing Iran's leadership. Johnson: "that I doubt."
Trump offered Iran $6 billion to reopen Hormuz, and, Pravin Sawhney says, conceded he has no control over Netanyahu. Iran's answer, carried back by Pakistan's Field Marshal Asim Munir: the next war "will not be the 40-day war" — if attacked, Iran would hit desalination plants, power grids, ports, refineries, US AI infrastructure in the Gulf and the seven subsea cables under Hormuz. Host Zulfiqar Ali brings what people in the room with Munir told him: Pakistan has decided to stand with Iran.
Timeline:
00:07:23 The $6 billion offer: Trump's terms for Iran, as the guest describes them.
00:08:15 "He has no control over Netanyahu."
00:11:38 The message: "this time, the war will be different."
00:22:57 Pakistan's decision — per people in the room with Asim Munir.
00:32:57 Netanyahu and the 27 October clock.
Description:
A senior Pakistani source tells host Zulfiqar Ali that Pakistan has picked Iran's side against US and Saudi pressure — after consulting Beijing — and that "nobody can save MBS". Live, Larry Johnson reads Haaretz's report that Washington now favours a preemptive strike on Iran.
01:51 Pakistan's choice: "stand firmly on the side of Iran" — per a Pakistani insider.
02:45 "Six corridors… back to where they were."
04:52 The message to MBS.
06:52 The first strike, as Haaretz reports it — and the US embassy order Larry Johnson reads as a war signal.
10:43 "Nothing left": what was said in Tehran about an Israeli nuclear strike — reported by the host's source.
What you'll learn: which side Pakistan has taken and who signed off on it · why Pakistan has told MBS to choose · what Haaretz reported about a US preemptive strike · what the Gulf embassy order does and does not mean · what closing both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb would cost the world.
Sourcing note: Pakistan's decision, the consultation with China's Wang Yi, the message to MBS and the remark in Tehran are our host's own sourcing from a senior Pakistani source and cannot be independently verified.
Public record: Field Marshal Munir was in Tehran on 20–21 October and met SNSC Secretary Mohsen Rezaei; Pakistan reopened its Taftan and Gabd–Rimdan crossings with Iran on 20 October after closing them on 17 October, citing security; LPG imports remained blocked.
The "six corridors" are the source's account. Haaretz's correspondent reported an apparent US shift toward a preemptive strike, citing White House sources — that is the "reportedly" in our title; Haaretz also reported the same day that Trump had blocked an early-October strike.
Reuters reports the US ordered some embassy staff and families out of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Jordan, with US officials citing Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia; no report lists Kuwait. Fars reported explosions of unknown origin in Sirik, southern Iran — not Iraq. Pakistan, Türkiye, Qatar and Indonesia signed the "Badr" defence-industry MoU in Doha on 21 October.
Description:
MBS wants Pakistan. Trump needs Iran. Pakistan’s Field Marshal Munir is in Tehran — and our host’s sources say MBS gets a no. Pepe Escobar says what Munir carried: a quiet return of IAEA inspectors, for little more than the interest on Iran’s $6 billion in Qatar.
— 06:10 The offer: IAEA inspectors back in Iran, and what Iran would get in return — according to Pepe Escobar.
— 14:21 “Show us the money”: why Escobar says Tehran won’t take it — before the 3 November midterms.
— 30:01 What MBS wants from Pakistan, and why our host’s sources say Islamabad will refuse.
What you’ll learn: what Field Marshal Asim Munir carried into Tehran · why Washington wants a concession from Iran before the midterms · how sanctions, the IMF and the border gates squeeze Pakistan · what Lavrov proposed in Tehran · what our host’s sources say about China’s backing, the Riyadh war room and Saudi pressure.
Sourcing note: The Qatari–Pakistani IAEA idea and its price are Pepe Escobar’s account; we have not located them in public reporting. The Pakistan–MBS and China reports are our host’s own sourcing from Islamabad and Rawalpindi and cannot be independently verified.
The Najran delegation, the three Black Hawks and the Article 2 wording are as Escobar describes them; we have not located them. Escobar’s Balochistan remarks are a scenario, not a report. Public record: Fars said Munir’s trip was finalised on Monday 19 October; Reuters reported on 20 October — after this recording — that Mohsen Rezaei told Munir there would be “no talks with Washington until Tehran’s demands were met”, and that Iranian officials see “little prospect of a breakthrough before the November 3 vote”; Trump has said the US would not strike Iran again before 3 November. The 1934 Treaty of Taif was signed between Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
Description:
Pakistani military sources say Pakistani naval aircraft warned US helicopters away from the coast off Karachi. The same weekend, trade across the Iran–Pakistan land border crossings was halted — and our host’s sources say Iran has 400 targets locked, many of them in Israel. Zulfiqar Ali brings both accounts, checked in Islamabad and Tehran; Pepe Escobar, from Bangkok after midnight, brings the dollar-bypass talks the closure interrupted — and the one country whose cargo still crosses.
— 07:57 The Black Hawk encounter, per Pakistani military sources.
— 16:30 Except China: the cargo that still crosses, per our host’s sources.
— 27:17 Iran’s 400 locked targets: the warning our host’s sources relayed.
What you’ll learn: why Pakistan and Iran suspended trade at their border, and what officials on both sides say it was for · whether Washington pressured Islamabad — and the answer our host was given · what the US Navy is doing off Pakistan’s coast · why Chinese cargo is still moving · where Iran stands on the Mecca defence pact · what Egypt and the OIC are doing about Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen.
Sourcing note: The Black Hawk encounter, the Chinese-cargo exemption, the saboteur arrests and the position of US naval assets are our host’s own sourcing from Pakistani military, naval and coastal officials and cannot be independently verified; we found no public report of the encounter. “3 nautical miles” is the distance as reported to our host; Pakistan’s territorial sea extends 12 nautical miles, and the host says the helicopters did not enter Pakistani territory.
A Pakistani brigadier told our host the detained saboteurs were financed by the UAE; that is one officer’s allegation and has not been independently verified. The 3,000-truck figure and its banking cause are Pepe Escobar’s information.
Public record: Pakistan’s Ministry of Commerce suspended trade through the Taftan and Gabd-Rimdan crossings (memo of 16 October, announced 17 October); Pakistani officials cited security, counterterrorism and smuggling and said the border is likely to reopen soon; Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman called the closure temporary and cited “technical issues”; more than 2,000 containers were reported stranded at Gabd-Rimdan, while passenger traffic continued at Gabd-Rimdan.
The 400 locked targets are our host’s sourcing and cannot be independently verified. The Iran–Pakistan central bank meeting is Escobar’s reporting; the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings ran in Bangkok on 12–18 October. Iran’s interest in the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement is contested: our host’s sources say Iran has expressed interest; Escobar says it is not being discussed in Tehran; Iran’s foreign ministry said in August it had received no formal invitation.
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson, with Zulfiqar Ali on Transition Protocol, on why Trump's MOAB can't crack Iran's Pickaxe Mountain. Ali's sources in Islamabad say MBS asked Pakistan for help, repeatedly, and Pakistan said no. Johnson, who briefed a UN Security Council Arria-formula meeting on Wednesday, says Europe will start a war with Russia it will regret.
The show also covers what the MOAB can and cannot do, why Pakistan will not fight Ansar Allah for MBS, what Pakistani and Turkish officers told MBS about Israelis in his war room, how Johnson expects the war to end and China's role, and why diesel is short in a country that makes more than it uses.
The Islamabad decision, MBS's requests and the war-room account are the host's own sourcing and cannot be independently verified. Johnson's Europe and MBS forecasts are his analysis.
Timeline:
00:03:56 The MOAB: why an 11-ton air-burst bomb can't reach a facility under a mountain
00:10:21 No rescue: what Islamabad decided, per the host's sources
00:31:38 At the UN: the US tone shift, Nebenzia's answer, and Europe's hard line
Pepe Escobar with Zulfiqar Ali on Transition Protocol. Escobar says Iran is like a coiled cobra, ready to strike, and preparing to bypass the dollar.
A participant in Iran's Friday leadership meeting told Ali that if an attack comes from Dubai, Dubai will be finished as a commercial center. They also cover Iran's and Pakistan's central bank heads at the IMF meeting in Bangkok, and a report that Iranian oil may move to China over land.
The host says the Tehran meeting account, the Dubai and Oman lines, and the claim that Israelis have left Riyadh's war room are his own sourcing and cannot be independently verified.
Timeline:
00:02:59 Why Iran is a coiled cobra
00:15:42 IMF meeting in Bangkok
00:25:14 What Iran's leaders decided on Friday
Riyadh called Beijing. Trump called Putin for diesel. Nobody's coming to save Saudi Arabia — except 110 Americans.
("110 Americans in the Saudi war room" is per Transition Protocol's Pakistani military sources.) Here is why nobody is coming, what Beijing will actually do, and what the Russian diesel deal is really for — from a man who has lived in Beijing for almost three decades.
Einar Tangen joins host Zulfiqar Ali from Beijing as Houthi missiles hit Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport again.
Riyadh's calls: according to Transition Protocol's Pakistani military sources, 110 Americans were in the Saudi war room during the bombardment of Ansar Allah positions, even as Trump told Riyadh he wanted no new war. Pakistan will guard the holy sites only.
Beijing's answer: "very little," in Tangen's assessment — China will police dual-use parts flowing to the Houthis, will not arm anyone, and cannot project force from its single base in Djibouti. Reuters reported on 17 September that Saudi Arabia appealed to Beijing and that China privately urged Iran to rein in the Houthis.
Iran's choice: our sources say Tehran told Pakistani mediators it would not restrain the Houthis — it wanted Saudi losses.
The October surprise: why the Russian diesel deal (1.8 million tonnes from October to December) covers only days of US demand, and what Tangen thinks it is really for.
A gateway to a wider war? "Unfortunately, I do." And two ways this ends.
Sourcing note: "110 Americans" and the Iran–Pakistan exchange are the host's own reporting from Pakistani sources. Tangen's remark about discussions of tactical nuclear weapons has not been independently confirmed. On air, a figure of "510 to 525 million tons" of daily US diesel use is a misstatement; the US uses roughly half a million tonnes of distillate a day (EIA).
Pakistani officers in Saudi Arabia's Riyadh war room say they sit in the same room as CENTCOM and Israeli officers — and that target selection in the war on Yemen is done by CENTCOM and the Israelis. Host Zulfiqar Ali brings their account; Pepe Escobar, from Bangkok after midnight, brings Yemen's next targets and Iran's clock.
Sourcing note: The war-room and MBS reports are our host's own sourcing from Pakistani military personnel and cannot be independently verified. The "Mossad" and "17 people" remarks are Pepe Escobar's information; the host said on air he could not report it.
The Saudi spokesman's Eilat statement is as Escobar describes it; we have not located it. Public record: Riyadh airport was attacked on 6–8 October and operations resumed on 9 October; an Aramco facility south of Riyadh burned on 3 October; Turkey's foreign minister said on 8 October the Mecca pact is "not an offensive agreement"; Pakistan called the New York Times report of PAF strikes "fake and fabricated" on 8 October. An April report said Pakistan had deployed ~10,000 troops to the Yemen border; our host's sources deny it.
Timeline:
00:02:49 The next round: Aramco headquarters and King Khalid Airport, according to Pepe Escobar.
00:28:58 Pakistan's real role: 15 advisers, "not even a team" — per our host's sources.
00:35:39 Same room: what Pakistani personnel in the war room are reporting home.
Israeli intelligence officers — including a major general — have been seen inside Saudi Arabia's war consultations in Riyadh, Transition Protocol's Pakistani sources say. Here is why Riyadh needs them, who is refusing to fight for it, and what Yemen does next.
In this week's edition of The Week Ahead, Pepe Escobar — speaking from Bangkok after midnight — joins host Zulfiqar Ali three weeks before the US midterms.
Timeline:
00:02:08 Riyadh's appeal to China
00:03:22 The confirmation
00:20:09 Yemen's plan
00:24:44 Who won't fight
00:27:55 Iran
Warwick Powell on Transition Protocol. The United States can't win the Iran war, and can't walk away from it. Powell explains the Vietnam-era trap Washington is in, and why Iran is ready for what comes next.
He argues the US cannot concede on the Strait of Hormuz, and that prestige, not ego, keeps Washington in the war. Vietnam-era logic, he says, pushes a losing war onto the next president. On 8 October, Trump posted there would be no attack on Iran before the 3 November midterms. Powell also covers the cost at home in diesel, freight, and power bills, and Australia's AUKUS dilemma.
Timeline:
00:15:08 The decent interval
00:22:43 They want a grand invasion — the host's sources in Tehran
00:42:27 Can America defend the Pacific?
Pepe Escobar and Larry Johnson with Zulfiqar Ali on Transition Protocol. A senior source in Pakistan's military establishment told the show, in answer to five questions, that no Pakistani aircraft entered Yemeni airspace — "None. Zero." — and that the foreigners inside Saudi Arabia's war are mostly American: 110 American advisors, two Pakistani radar specialists and two Turkish technicians.
CNN has separately reported more than 100 US military advisers supporting the Saudi campaign. On 8 October Pakistan's Information Ministry called a New York Times report of Pakistani jets "fake and fabricated". The source says every Pakistani unit is around Mecca and Medina, under Pakistani command, not Najran.
Escobar says any move toward the border would make Pakistani forces "legitimate targets". Also Saudi Arabia's money, Trump's pause on Iran until after 3 November, and what a senior Iranian source told the host two hours before recording.
The five answers and the 110 / 2 / 2 figures come from that Pakistani military source. The Iranian remarks are a senior Iranian source speaking to the host. Larry Johnson's account of damage at Abqaiq and on the East–West pipeline has not been independently confirmed.
Iran's leaders say they expect a U.S. attack and are ready for it, according to Zulfiqar Ali's contacts in Tehran and Islamabad.
Pepe Escobar puts a "possibility of some sort of adventure" in the next few days at roughly 20–30%, and "nearly 100% certainty" of a U.S. move after the midterms, four weeks away.
In this episode of The Week Ahead, recorded Sunday 4 October 2026, Zulfiqar Ali reports what he says he was told by people making decisions in Tehran and Islamabad: that the civilian and military leadership expect an attack; that Iran says it has stocked food, medicine and housing for at least six months; that Russia, China and Pakistan are helping; and that Iran's targeting is "locked in."
Pepe Escobar, speaking from Thailand, explains the offer he says Iran put on the table through Qatar, what he says Xi Jinping offered Washington and how he expects China to reply, why he says diplomacy is dead for now, and how he reads the odds.
Description:
Pakistan will not fight Saudi Arabia’s war against Ansarallah (the Houthis) in Yemen — that is the answer Transition Protocol received from sources at the highest levels in Islamabad. And, per the host’s sources, Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir told MBS that Saudi Arabia would be spared Iranian strikes only if it kept its territory out of any US attack on Iran.
Pepe Escobar and Zulfiqar Ali on the deadline week: Iran’s 30 September marker, Netanyahu’s unannounced flight to Abu Dhabi to meet MBZ, the off-ramp Escobar says Xi Jinping offered Trump in the Oval Office, and the “November non-surprise” — the war Escobar expects after the US midterms if Washington says no again.
Sourcing note: Pakistan’s decision and the Munir–MBS exchange are reported from Transition Protocol’s sources and have not been independently confirmed; publicly, Saudi Arabia says joint efforts with Pakistan under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement continue. The host describes the agreement as tentative and still being negotiated. Netanyahu’s 27 September visit to Abu Dhabi was confirmed by UAE state media and his office. Forecasts in this episode are the speakers’ analysis
Description:
Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day plan on Saturday. Transition Protocol’s sources say Tehran is now ready to move to break the U.S. blockade after September 30 — and former CIA analyst Larry Johnson explains why Washington hasn’t fired back.
Host Zulfiqar Ali and Larry Johnson on: Iran’s strikes in the Strait of Hormuz and the missing U.S. response · why Johnson calls the administration’s oil-flow claims “an absolute total lie” · what a Pentagon casualty acknowledgement suggests about which ship was hit · the reported tanker and transport build-up at Al Udeid · China’s mixed signals · why Pakistan won’t fight the Houthis (per our Islamabad sources) · a rift at the top of the Saudi royal family (per our sources) · Netanyahu’s trip to Abu Dhabi · the Fairford arrests · the midterm clock · and why Johnson expects no recovery in Gulf oil flows for at least a year.
SOURCING: Claims attributed to “our sources” come from the host’s contacts and have not been independently verified. Larry Johnson’s views are his own analysis. Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal was reported on 26 September. The five men arrested near RAF Fairford were released on bail on 28 September; UK police say inquiries continue, and Iran’s embassy has denied any link.
Description:
Iran is prepared to take the war beyond the Strait of Hormuz and into the Indian Ocean if nothing moves this week — that is what Pepe Escobar’s contacts and three separate decision-level sources in Tehran are telling Transition Protocol. Here is the way out Washington did not take, the deadlines that start the clock, and who will and will not fight.
In the first edition of THE WEEK AHEAD, Pepe Escobar — speaking from Bangkok at 1 a.m. Monday — joins host Zulfiqar Ali to map the seven days that could decide the Iran war.
— Xi’s off-ramp: according to Escobar, Xi Jinping told Trump face to face to go back to the memorandum both sides signed. Chinese state media reported Xi backed a return to the June 17 Islamabad memorandum.
— The clock: Mohsen Rezaei’s four-to-five-day window runs out Monday 28 September; Wednesday 30 September is a second deadline, as Escobar describes it.
— Hormuz on Iran’s terms: pay the fee, get IRGC Navy clearance — or be attacked.
— Yemen: the Saudi strike on a market in Taiz, and what comes next.
— Pakistan’s answer: will Islamabad join a Saudi–Pakistani–Turkish campaign against Yemen? The host’s sources say no. On Tuesday he brings the answer from a decision-maker.
Chinese President Xi Jinping met Donald Trump in the Oval Office and put Iran's final 60-day de-escalation framework directly on the Resolute Desk. Trump refused—and Tehran's September 30 deadline to break the US blockade by force is now live.
In this emergency Transition Protocol intelligence briefing, renowned historian and geopolitical analyst Vijay Prashad joins host Zulfiqar Ali to break down the explosive backchannel negotiations, frontline sanctions defiance, and catastrophic imperial blowback reshaping the global order.
From secret meetings between Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in New York, to the destruction of US early-warning radar arrays in Kuwait and the impending closure of Al Udeid base in Qatar, Prashad reveals why Washington's position in West Asia is collapsing in real time.
Meanwhile, inside the United States, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent California diesel surging to $10 a gallon and mortgage rates to 7%, triggering a devastating domestic inflationary crisis just weeks before the midterm elections.
Iran has reportedly put a conditional offer on the table for reopening the Strait of Hormuz — but the proposal comes with terms, a seven-day sequence, and a September 30 deadline.
In this emergency briefing, Pepe Escobar breaks down the reported New York diplomatic channel, the conditions tied to the Strait of Hormuz, China’s reported message to Donald Trump, the aviation-ban confrontation, the Red Sea front, and the parallel military and diplomatic tracks.
This episode distinguishes on-record analysis, attributed reporting, source-based claims, and forecasts. Claims about an Iranian offer, China’s position, and regional alignment are presented as statements made in the conversation unless independently confirmed in the final edit. Viewer judgment matters: which track is moving faster, diplomacy or escalation, and who blinks first?
Description:
Russia is warning Europe that continued military pressure could bring direct strikes. Larry Johnson says Iran may refuse to wait for another attack, while the closed Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab are already reshaping fuel, shipping and political calculations.
In this Transition Protocol briefing, Larry Johnson and Zulfiqar Ali examine the Russia-Europe red line, the reported risk to Al-Udeid in Qatar, Iran’s conditions for reopening Hormuz, Ansar Allah’s advance in Yemen, the Saudi royal dispute and the diesel shock created by longer shipping routes. Source-based claims and predictions are identified as such in the conversation and on screen.
Topics: Russia Europe tensions, Iran US escalation, Strait of Hormuz, Al-Udeid, Ansar Allah, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, diesel prices, shipping routes, China, Pakistan and the Mecca Agreement.
Description:
Trump blamed Ukraine for America’s record diesel prices. Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson runs the numbers — and says the real cause is the Gulf, $11–12 diesel is possible in California, and relief is at least two months away even if the war ended tonight.
Recorded from Moscow on 21 September 2026, on the eve of UN General Assembly week. Johnson and host Zulfiqar Ali cover why Russia’s lost diesel exports can’t explain the spike, what the Houthi attacks on Yanbu and control of Bab al-Mandab have done to supply, why Saudi Arabia may be forced to sell US Treasuries, why Trump has so far refused to strike Yemen on Riyadh’s behalf, what our own sources say about Yemen’s next six weeks, and why Johnson expects Trump to meet Xi on Thursday from a weak position.
Sourcing note: forecasts and analysis are Larry Johnson’s. Items marked “our sources” are Transition Protocol’s own reporting and are not independently confirmed. Trump’s remarks on Ukraine and diesel: 13 September 2026. US diesel prices: AAA.
Transition Protocol is independent, audience-funded geopolitical analysis.
