Pepe Escobar | Iran's Leaders Expect US Attack. Only Question Is When | Transition Protocol | Oct. 4, 2026

Source: Transition Protocol youtube



Description: 

Iran's leaders say they expect a U.S. attack and are ready for it, according to Zulfiqar Ali's contacts in Tehran and Islamabad.

Pepe Escobar puts a "possibility of some sort of adventure" in the next few days at roughly 20–30%, and "nearly 100% certainty" of a U.S. move after the midterms, four weeks away.

In this episode of The Week Ahead, recorded Sunday 4 October 2026, Zulfiqar Ali reports what he says he was told by people making decisions in Tehran and Islamabad: that the civilian and military leadership expect an attack; that Iran says it has stocked food, medicine and housing for at least six months; that Russia, China and Pakistan are helping; and that Iran's targeting is "locked in." 

Pepe Escobar, speaking from Thailand, explains the offer he says Iran put on the table through Qatar, what he says Xi Jinping offered Washington and how he expects China to reply, why he says diplomacy is dead for now, and how he reads the odds.

Pepe Escobar | MBS wanted Pakistan’s army. Pakistan won’t join Saudi Arabia’s war on the Houthis | Sept. 29, 2026

Source: Transition Protocol youtube



Description:
Pakistan will not fight Saudi Arabia’s war against Ansarallah (the Houthis) in Yemen — that is the answer Transition Protocol received from sources at the highest levels in Islamabad. And, per the host’s sources, Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir told MBS that Saudi Arabia would be spared Iranian strikes only if it kept its territory out of any US attack on Iran.

Pepe Escobar and Zulfiqar Ali on the deadline week: Iran’s 30 September marker, Netanyahu’s unannounced flight to Abu Dhabi to meet MBZ, the off-ramp Escobar says Xi Jinping offered Trump in the Oval Office, and the “November non-surprise” — the war Escobar expects after the US midterms if Washington says no again.

Sourcing note: Pakistan’s decision and the Munir–MBS exchange are reported from Transition Protocol’s sources and have not been independently confirmed; publicly, Saudi Arabia says joint efforts with Pakistan under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement continue. The host describes the agreement as tentative and still being negotiated. Netanyahu’s 27 September visit to Abu Dhabi was confirmed by UAE state media and his office. Forecasts in this episode are the speakers’ analysis 

Larry Johnson | Iran hit ships two nights running. U.S. didn't shoot back. 37 American soldiers wounded | Sept. 28, 2026

Source: Transition Protocol youtube



Description:
Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day plan on Saturday. Transition Protocol’s sources say Tehran is now ready to move to break the U.S. blockade after September 30 — and former CIA analyst Larry Johnson explains why Washington hasn’t fired back.

Host Zulfiqar Ali and Larry Johnson on: Iran’s strikes in the Strait of Hormuz and the missing U.S. response · why Johnson calls the administration’s oil-flow claims “an absolute total lie” · what a Pentagon casualty acknowledgement suggests about which ship was hit · the reported tanker and transport build-up at Al Udeid · China’s mixed signals · why Pakistan won’t fight the Houthis (per our Islamabad sources) · a rift at the top of the Saudi royal family (per our sources) · Netanyahu’s trip to Abu Dhabi · the Fairford arrests · the midterm clock · and why Johnson expects no recovery in Gulf oil flows for at least a year.

SOURCING: Claims attributed to “our sources” come from the host’s contacts and have not been independently verified. Larry Johnson’s views are his own analysis. Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal was reported on 26 September. The five men arrested near RAF Fairford were released on bail on 28 September; UK police say inquiries continue, and Iran’s embassy has denied any link. 

Pepe Escobar | Iran’s Next Front Is the Indian Ocean and Clock Starts This Week,Naval Breakout Next? | Sept. 27, 2026

Source: Transition Protocol youtube



Description:
Iran is prepared to take the war beyond the Strait of Hormuz and into the Indian Ocean if nothing moves this week — that is what Pepe Escobar’s contacts and three separate decision-level sources in Tehran are telling Transition Protocol. Here is the way out Washington did not take, the deadlines that start the clock, and who will and will not fight.

In the first edition of THE WEEK AHEAD, Pepe Escobar — speaking from Bangkok at 1 a.m. Monday — joins host Zulfiqar Ali to map the seven days that could decide the Iran war.

— Xi’s off-ramp: according to Escobar, Xi Jinping told Trump face to face to go back to the memorandum both sides signed. Chinese state media reported Xi backed a return to the June 17 Islamabad memorandum.

— The clock: Mohsen Rezaei’s four-to-five-day window runs out Monday 28 September; Wednesday 30 September is a second deadline, as Escobar describes it.

— Hormuz on Iran’s terms: pay the fee, get IRGC Navy clearance — or be attacked.
— Yemen: the Saudi strike on a market in Taiz, and what comes next.
— Pakistan’s answer: will Islamabad join a Saudi–Pakistani–Turkish campaign against Yemen? The host’s sources say no. On Tuesday he brings the answer from a decision-maker. 

Vijay Prashad | Xi Put an Exit From the Iran War on Trump's Desk. Why Is It Still Sitting There? | Sep. 26, 2026

Source: Transition Protocol youtube



Description: 

Chinese President Xi Jinping met Donald Trump in the Oval Office and put Iran's final 60-day de-escalation framework directly on the Resolute Desk. Trump refused—and Tehran's September 30 deadline to break the US blockade by force is now live.

In this emergency Transition Protocol intelligence briefing, renowned historian and geopolitical analyst Vijay Prashad joins host Zulfiqar Ali to break down the explosive backchannel negotiations, frontline sanctions defiance, and catastrophic imperial blowback reshaping the global order.

From secret meetings between Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in New York, to the destruction of US early-warning radar arrays in Kuwait and the impending closure of Al Udeid base in Qatar, Prashad reveals why Washington's position in West Asia is collapsing in real time.

Meanwhile, inside the United States, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent California diesel surging to $10 a gallon and mortgage rates to 7%, triggering a devastating domestic inflationary crisis just weeks before the midterm elections.

Pepe Escobar | Iran’s Hormuz Offer: 3 Conditions, 7 Days, Sep 30 Deadline. Xi Gave Trump One Way Out | Sep. 25, 2026

Source: Transition Protocol youtube



Description: 

Iran has reportedly put a conditional offer on the table for reopening the Strait of Hormuz — but the proposal comes with terms, a seven-day sequence, and a September 30 deadline. 

In this emergency briefing, Pepe Escobar breaks down the reported New York diplomatic channel, the conditions tied to the Strait of Hormuz, China’s reported message to Donald Trump, the aviation-ban confrontation, the Red Sea front, and the parallel military and diplomatic tracks.

This episode distinguishes on-record analysis, attributed reporting, source-based claims, and forecasts. Claims about an Iranian offer, China’s position, and regional alignment are presented as statements made in the conversation unless independently confirmed in the final edit. Viewer judgment matters: which track is moving faster, diplomacy or escalation, and who blinks first?

Larry Johnson | Back From Moscow: Russia and Iran Send Same Warning,Could Hit Al Udeid Within a Week | Transition Protocol | Sept. 25, 2026

Source: Transition Protocol youtube



Description:
Russia is warning Europe that continued military pressure could bring direct strikes. Larry Johnson says Iran may refuse to wait for another attack, while the closed Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab are already reshaping fuel, shipping and political calculations.

In this Transition Protocol briefing, Larry Johnson and Zulfiqar Ali examine the Russia-Europe red line, the reported risk to Al-Udeid in Qatar, Iran’s conditions for reopening Hormuz, Ansar Allah’s advance in Yemen, the Saudi royal dispute and the diesel shock created by longer shipping routes. Source-based claims and predictions are identified as such in the conversation and on screen.

Topics: Russia Europe tensions, Iran US escalation, Strait of Hormuz, Al-Udeid, Ansar Allah, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, diesel prices, shipping routes, China, Pakistan and the Mecca Agreement.

Larry Johnson | $12 Diesel Is Coming Trump Blamed the Wrong War "The Math Simply Does Not Work” | Transition Protocol | Sept. 22, 2026

Source: Transition Protocol youtube



Description:
Trump blamed Ukraine for America’s record diesel prices. Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson runs the numbers — and says the real cause is the Gulf, $11–12 diesel is possible in California, and relief is at least two months away even if the war ended tonight.

Recorded from Moscow on 21 September 2026, on the eve of UN General Assembly week. Johnson and host Zulfiqar Ali cover why Russia’s lost diesel exports can’t explain the spike, what the Houthi attacks on Yanbu and control of Bab al-Mandab have done to supply, why Saudi Arabia may be forced to sell US Treasuries, why Trump has so far refused to strike Yemen on Riyadh’s behalf, what our own sources say about Yemen’s next six weeks, and why Johnson expects Trump to meet Xi on Thursday from a weak position.

Sourcing note: forecasts and analysis are Larry Johnson’s. Items marked “our sources” are Transition Protocol’s own reporting and are not independently confirmed. Trump’s remarks on Ukraine and diesel: 13 September 2026. US diesel prices: AAA.

Transition Protocol is independent, audience-funded geopolitical analysis. 

Pepe Escobar | IRAN Names Its Price to OPEN Hormuz, Sent Them With CHINA, IRAN:Take the Deal, or It’s 20 to 2 | Transition Protocol | Sept. 21, 2026

Source: Transition Protocol youtube



Description:
Tehran has priced the Strait of Hormuz. The bill went to Washington through Qatar, with Pakistan named as a consultation partner and the terms agreed with Beijing first.

Iran has set out what it wants in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Seven conditions were relayed to the United States through Qatar; three have been published and four have not. Sanctions relief is not among them — and in this episode Pepe Escobar explains why Tehran did not bother asking for something Congress and a Security Council veto make undeliverable.

The part that is not being reported anywhere else: before Xi Jinping’s state visit to Washington on Thursday 24 September, Abbas Araghchi flew to Beijing and told Wang Yi that Iran had reached a plan with Oman to reopen the trade. Transition Protocol’s reporting is that the three points were agreed between the two foreign ministers ahead of that visit. That specific claim is ours and is not independently confirmed; everything around it is sourced and linked below.

And if Washington refuses? On the recording Pepe Escobar says the retaliation will not be two to one or five to one but “20 to 2, or maybe 30 to 2.” That figure is Iran’s stated position as relayed by Escobar — it is not a Transition Protocol forecast. Separately, and on his own sourcing, Zulfiqar Ali puts the figure at 22 to 1. We have left both on the record rather than splitting the difference, because they come from different sources and we are not going to pretend otherwise. 

Pepe Escobar | Saudi Arabia Is Boxed In.The Yemen Intel They Won't Reveal.Yemen Put Saudi on Back Foot | Sept. 17, 2026

Source: Transition Protocol youtube



Description:
Iran holds the Strait of Hormuz. Yemen’s forces now hold the Bab al-Mandab. Saudi Arabia is boxed in on both coasts — and Transition Protocol says it knows why Yemen went all-in.

Recorded after midnight in Moscow, Pepe Escobar and Zulfiqar Ali (Mr. Z) break down five interlocking developments: the quiet understanding between Ansarallah and the White House behind Trump’s “the Houthis called us”; CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper’s meeting with MBS in Jeddah; the postponed Iran–Gulf Hormuz talks that Iran blames on Riyadh; the UAE’s surprise BRICS sit-down with President Pezeshkian; and Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi’s talks with Wang Yi in Beijing.

The hosts also say they hold information — which they say was confirmed at senior levels in Tehran and Islamabad — explaining the ferocity of Yemen’s offensive. They explain on air why they are not releasing the details yet.

Also: diesel at the $9.99 pump limit in California, who turned down MBS’s requests for help, Yemen’s next moves on Taiz and Marib, and Pepe Escobar’s scenarios for Saudi Arabia.

Guest statements about sources, intelligence and future events are the speakers’ own reporting and analysis and are labelled as such on screen.

Support independent analysis: subscribe to Transition Protocol on Substack (same name). New: Friday Fire with Pepe Escobar, every Friday. 

Larry C. Johnson | Saudi Oil's Escape Route Got Cut, Houthis Claim Saudi F-15 KILL as OIL Crisis Deepens | Sept. 17, 2026

Source: Transition Protocol youtube



Description:
Hormuz was already blocked. Now Saudi Arabia's main escape route — the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea — is shut, the Houthis claim they shot down a Saudi F-15, and the Fed just raised rates.

Military analyst Larry and host Zulfiqar Ali explain how the Houthi offensive, the pipeline outage and record diesel prices connect — and why the only door being negotiated open may be an Iran-controlled corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, with a fee attached.

In this episode: why the Houthi offensive was planned months ago; what the Houthis' F-15 claim means for Saudi air power; Pakistan's reported answer to MBS; Iran's reported one-for-one tanker offer; the Pentagon inspector general's report on US bases; the Fed's first rate hike since 2023; $9.99 diesel in California; and whether the oil shock can ease before the 3 November midterms.

Sourcing note: the pipeline shutdown, the Fed decision and the Pentagon IG findings are publicly confirmed. The F-15 downing is a Houthi claim not confirmed by Saudi Arabia. Statements attributed to contacts in Tehran, Islamabad and Riyadh are our guests' sources and have not been independently verified. Predictions are the speakers' analysis. 

Larry Johnson | Diesel Just Hit $9.999, Trump Is Blaming Wrong War, Trump Has 3 Days to Reverse on Iran | Transition Protocol | Sept. 14, 2026

Source: Transition Protocol youtube



Description:
American diesel just set an all-time record — $6.05 a gallon nationally, $7.87 in California, and six pumps in the state stuck at $9.999 because the hardware cannot display a fourth digit. On Sunday the President said the cause was Ukraine. Larry Johnson says it is the wrong war.

Recorded 14 September 2026. Military analyst Larry Johnson joins Dr. Zulfiqar Ali from Russia to explain the mechanism almost no one is reporting: roughly 70% of US refineries are configured for heavy and sour crude, the grades that used to arrive from Russia, Iran, Venezuela and the Persian Gulf. Those inputs are gone. You cannot make diesel from crude your refinery was not built to process — and no strategic reserve holds finished diesel.

Also in this episode, from sources in Tehran and Islamabad contacted within the hour before recording:

• Why Saudi Arabia was refused three times — twice by Washington, and once by Pakistan under the Mecca Defence Accord it signed in August, reportedly on the grounds that the Yemen war is "a pre-existing condition"
• Dr. Ali's reporting that MBS asked Field Marshal Asim Munir directly for military support and was turned down flat
• Why the UAE and Kuwait have repaired relations with Tehran, leaving Bahrain as the only holdout in the Gulf
• The arrangement taking shape behind the postponed Oman talks: a safe passage administered by Iran and Oman, with a toll the Gulf states are reportedly prepared to pay
• Larry Johnson's assessment that Donald Trump has two or three days to reverse course before the midterm economy is beyond recovery
• What the East–West pipeline shutdown means now that Yanbu holds only days of export stock 

Transition Protocol | Iran Says It Seized a U.S. Underwater Drone Iran Pounded a US Base in Jordan. Trump Didn’t Hit Back | Pravin Sawhney | Sept. 11, 2026

Source: Transition Protocol youtube



Description:
Iran says its forces recovered a U.S.-operated underwater drone at the Strait of Hormuz. The United States says the Anduril Dive-LD malfunctioned during a survey mission. In this episode, defence analyst Pravin Sawhney joins Zulfiqar Ali to explain what the vehicle can do, why its 6,000-metre operating depth and roughly 10-day endurance matter, and what the incident may reveal about the underwater contest around the world’s most important oil chokepoint.

The discussion also examines Iran’s confirmed ballistic-missile launches toward a U.S. aircraft carrier and destroyer, Tehran’s newly announced maritime restricted zone, the Iran–Oman shipping corridor, the Pakistan–Saudi Arabia–Türkiye defence framework, the Yemen escalation and the approaching BRICS summit in New Delhi. Damage claims, casualty reports and private-source assertions are identified as disputed or unverified rather than presented as settled fact.

Pravin Sawhney is a defence analyst and author focused on military technology and the changing character of war. Transition Protocol is an independent, source-driven geopolitical channel examining shifts in military power, global finance and the emerging multipolar order. Subscribe for high-signal reporting that separates verified developments from analyst judgment and source claims. 

Larry C. Johnson | US Bases in Jordan Suffer Sustained Iran Missile Attack — U.S. Power Just Cracked | Transition Protocol | Sept. 9, 2026

Source: Transition Protocol youtube



Description:
Washington said it would answer tanker for tanker. Iran struck US bases in Jordan and hit ships in the Gulf. By the time this conversation was recorded in St Petersburg, the American answer still had not come.

Zulfiqar Ali speaks with military analyst Larry Johnson about the Gulf confrontation, the diesel shortage that matters more than the crude price, Iran's exit from the dollar system through Chinese banking channels, Pakistan's emergence as Tehran's financial back door, and what the missile-versus-interceptor exchange over Jordan revealed about American air defence. Johnson also recounts a private dinner with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, and gives a blunt assessment of where Ukraine ends.

Larry Johnson is a former CIA analyst and former deputy director of the State Department's Office of Counterterrorism, speaking from St Petersburg. Transition Protocol is an independent, source-driven geopolitical and economic analysis channel.

This episode contains analysis, forecasts and claims attributed to the speakers and to their unnamed contacts. Several are single-source and have not been independently verified. Where accounts differ from official statements — including the scale of the Jordan strike — we have said so on screen. Consequential claims should be independently verified.

Pepe Escobar | North Korea Just Delivered Carrier-Killer Drones to Iran | Sep. 8, 2026

Source: Transition Protocol youtube



Description: 

Pepe Escobar, reporting from Seoul, and Zulfiqar Ali on Iran's shift from defense to offense, a reported North Korean underwater-drone delivery, and the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's leadership has concluded that this war cannot be settled at a negotiating table. Recorded 8 September 2026, they lay out how diplomatic off-ramps brokered by Pakistan collapsed and what that means for the wider Iran war. 

Zulfiqar Ali reports, from sources inside Iran's power structures, that North Korea has delivered stealth underwater attack drones to Iran through a corridor involving China and Pakistan, and that the decision to go on the offensive was cleared by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, President Pezeshkian, Speaker Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Araghchi. The channel marks this as source-based reporting, not independently verified. 

Escobar assesses a possible American counter-response and what a strategic defeat in West Asia and Ukraine at the same time would mean for US power.

Larry Johnson & Pepe Escobar | Iran Told Trump "GET LOST" 10-Day Ceasefire REJECTED Trump Begged Iran | Transition Protocol | Sept. 2, 2026

Source: Transition Protocol youtube



Description:
Iran told Trump "get lost." Sources with direct contact to Islamabad and Tehran tell Transition Protocol that Trump offered Iran a 10-day cessation of hostilities this week — and was refused. Then, through Qatar, the White House asked Iran to allow "performative strikes" with no retaliation. Iran refused again. 

Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir has stopped returning Trump's calls after being sent to Tehran twice and reneged on twice. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed despite official claims it is "wide open," CENTCOM has re-stood up a 24/7 battle staff, and Iran's retaliation doctrine is now 2-to-1, 3-to-1, 5-to-1 with a war plan built to run through the US midterms.

Larry Johnson explains why the bond market — not the Pentagon — is forcing Trump to back down: Treasury yields are rising and, in his words, "nobody's buying." Pepe Escobar breaks down the tanker-for-tanker gamble that could detonate global shipping insurance, Ghalibaf's warning that "if we cannot export oil, nobody will," and the SCO development bank being built outside the US dollar at Bishkek and Vladivostok ahead of the BRICS summit in India. Zulfiqar Ali reports Tehran's final position: diplomacy only through the Islamabad MOU — no more negotiations.

Guests: Larry Johnson, former CIA analyst and State Department counter-terrorism official; Pepe Escobar, veteran geopolitical correspondent covering BRICS, SCO and Eurasia from the ground; hosted by Zulfiqar Ali. Inside-source claims in this episode are attributed and identified on screen as developing; nothing unverified is presented as settled fact. Transition Protocol is a serious, source-driven geopolitical and economic analysis channel — evidence-based reporting on global power shifts and their financial consequences. Subscribe and join us on Substack for twice-weekly briefings 

Pepe Escobar | Iran Gave TRUMP a Way Out of WAR Return to the MOU or Hormuz Stays SHUT Why He Said NO | Transition Protocol | Sept. 2, 2026

Source: Transition Protocol youtube



Description:
Trump called Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir repeatedly — "find me an off-ramp" — according to a source close to Munir cited by Zulfiqar Ali. 

Munir went to Tehran and, Zulfiqar reports, persuaded a reluctant Iran to offer Washington a way out; Trump rejected it because he could not present it as a victory. 

Days later the Strait of Hormuz tanker incident restarted the bombing. The call-level details are Zulfiqar's sourced reporting and have not been independently verified; the 14-point Islamabad MOU is public (link below).

Pepe Escobar then lays out what Washington won't: Iran's actual terms (return to the MOU or Hormuz stays shut), the timeline Tehran is reported to be planning for, the endurance contest over interceptors and resupply, and why the global economy cannot sustain a forever war at the world's most important chokepoint.

Then the story the West ignored this week: the SCO summit in Bishkek. The declaration on the attack on Iran and "indivisible security"; the proposed SCO energy consortium and development bank outside the dollar system; 

Mongolia and Afghanistan moving toward membership; Pakistan's 2027 chairmanship; and the Saudi–Pakistan–Turkey Mecca Defence Agreement moving from paper to institution. What is confirmed, what is developing, and what it means for oil, the dollar and the next phase of the war.

Pepe Escobar is a veteran geopolitical analyst who has covered the SCO since its 2001 founding. Zulfiqar Ali's reporting draws on sources inside Pakistan's military and diplomatic leadership. Transition Protocol is an independent, source-driven channel; claims from insiders are labelled as such on screen. Subscribe and turn on notifications — tomorrow: Larry Johnson on Vladivostok and the Eastern Economic Forum. 

Pepe Escobar | BREAKING: The Nuclear Signal Nobody Expected.Why the Next 72 Hours Decide Everything | Aug. 27, 2026

Source: Transition Protocol youtube



Description:
IRAN HAS SIGNALLED IT MAY OPEN THE NUCLEAR FILE — and the Strait of Hormuz has 72 hours to prove whether the deal is real. 

Pepe Escobar and Zulfiqar Ali break down the Iran–US architecture now being assembled through Pakistani mediation: the closed Strait of Hormuz, the war-risk insurance premiums that will move before any government speaks, the six billion dollars sitting in Qatari banks, and the three-capital joint statement that sources say could land within 48 hours. Sources close to the talks indicate Iranian negotiators may show flexibility on the nuclear dossier at a later stage — a reversal from the position held a day earlier.

Also in this episode: why Iran has shut Omani territorial waters to transiting ships and taken control of the whole strait; why Pakistan has refused to enforce US secondary sanctions on Iran — described here as a first in its history — alongside coordinated foreign-ministry pushback from Russia and China; the role of former Pakistani army chief Raheel Sharif in carrying the framework to Riyadh and onward to Washington; the 40 million Pakistani Shias offered to Tehran as a guarantee of good faith; and the 60-to-90-day framework of indirect talks and cessation of hostilities now under discussion, with Pakistan as mediator and Qatar as the financial channel. Islamabad and Switzerland are both being pushed as the signing venue.

Pepe Escobar is a veteran geopolitical correspondent who has covered Eurasian politics and energy for decades; Zulfiqar Ali reports from direct contacts across the Pakistani and Iranian political and military leadership. Claims sourced to those contacts are marked DEVELOPING on screen and are not independently verified. Transition Protocol is a source-driven geopolitics channel covering de-dollarization, BRICS, the multipolar order and the financial consequences of global power shifts. Subscribe for the follow-up the moment the joint statement lands. 

Pepe Escobar | BREAKING: MUNIR GETS IRAN’S GREEN LIGHT, HE Met the Man Who Threatened to Shut Off Gulf Oil | Aug. 26, 2026

Source: Transition Protocol youtube



Description:
Iran has told Washington that if the United States succeeds in economically suffocating it, not a drop of oil will leave the Gulf — not from Saudi Arabia, not the UAE, not Qatar, not anywhere.

That message was carried out of Tehran this week by Field Marshal Asim Munir and Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, and delivered to the acting US ambassador in Islamabad within hours of their return.

Pepe Escobar and Zulfiqar Ali break down the full sequence — the Trump phone call that started it, the six-point mechanism now on the table, the Strait of Hormuz deal-breaker, and the message from Beijing that landed in the room while the talks were still running.

Also in this episode — what Iran is demanding before it returns to the table (frozen assets, sanctions relief, an end to the naval blockade); why the new US Treasury sanctions package is functionally aimed at China; the single American decision that would collapse the entire process overnight; Iran's four-step escalation ladder and the NPT exit that sits on the first rung; and why both analysts now describe this as the last chance saloon. Chapter markers below.

Pepe Escobar is a globally recognised geopolitical correspondent covering Eurasia, BRICS and the multipolar transition. Zulfiqar Ali reports from direct channels in Islamabad and Tehran. Transition Protocol is a source-driven geopolitical and economic analysis channel focused on evidence-based reporting and high-signal breakdowns of global power shifts and their financial consequences. Some claims in this episode are single-source and are identified on screen as such.

Larry Johnson & Pepe Escobar | Trump Tried to Buy Iran's Revolutionary Guard IRAN REJECTS TRUMP'S BILLIONS IN BRIBES | Transition Protocol Aug. 20, 2026

Source: Transition Protocol youtube



Description:
Trump's White House tried to buy off Iran's Revolutionary Guard with a multi-billion-dollar offer modeled on the Venezuela playbook — and got refused twice, first by IRGC commander Vahidi, who called it treason, and then by Pakistan's Army Chief Asim Munir, who told Trump directly that Islamabad would not help destabilize Tehran's leadership.

In this episode, Zulfiqar Ali, Pepe Escobar, and Larry Johnson break down the failed bribery attempt, China's directive to Pakistan to prioritize its Iran relationship, and why the collapse of the US–Iran memorandum of understanding is now pushing Washington toward open discussion of a nuclear strike on Iran.

The panel also covers the global diesel and aviation-fuel shortage triggered by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, the UAE's public cutoff of trade with Iran days after reportedly sending Tehran billions in cash and gold, and why Oman and Qatar are now openly rejecting US pressure over who controls the strait.

This episode is built on direct reporting from sources inside Tehran and Islamabad and lands the same week the US–Iran MOU formally expired (August 17–18, 2026), with Iran declaring a shift to a fully offensive posture on Hormuz.

Zulfiqar Ali reports with direct access to decision-making circles in Islamabad and Tehran; Pepe Escobar is a veteran geopolitical analyst covering Eurasia and the multipolar order from the ground; Larry Johnson is a former US intelligence and State Department official providing military and strategic analysis. Transition Protocol is a serious, source-driven geopolitical and economic analysis channel focused on evidence-based reporting and high-signal breakdowns of global power shifts and their financial consequences.